VUCA
63/100
VUCA INDEX
SITUATION · CARIBBEAN · SECURITY · GOVERNANCE · HUMANITARIAN · GREAT-POWER COMPETITION

Haiti Gang Collapse

VUCA INDEX 63/100INDEX STEADY (±0/14D)CONFIDENCE 0.50
IN 30 SECONDS
WHAT THIS ISViv Ansanm gangs hold an estimated 85% of the capital, blockading the port, airport corridors, and highways while a transitional council flails without an elected government. The UN-backed, Kenya-led Multinational Security Support mission remains under-manned and under-funded, and Washington is pushing to convert it into a larger 'gang suppression force.' Haiti's status as one of the few remaining diplomatic allies of Taiwan keeps Beijing engaged diplomatically—blocking or shaping UN action and dangling recognition-for-investment leverage.
LATEST CHANGEGang coalition controls most of Port-au-Prince as the Kenya-led security mission stalls and the state hollows out.
WHAT CHANGED · LAST 72H
Viv Ansanm gang coalition controls the bulk of Port-au-Prince and chokes the main seaport and road access.
Kenya-led MSS mission remains far below authorized strength; US presses UN for a robust successor force.
Transitional Presidential Council paralyzed; no elections held, over a million internally displaced.
INTENSITY · OBSERVED + FORECAST
BASELINE 62+1 VS BASELINE
90D OBSERVEDFORECAST · DASHED
DOSSIER DEVELOPING

This situation is actively monitored. Its narrative and claims build here as sources are ingested and each claim is verified — evidence first, always.

See a complete dossier: Gaza War
THEATER · CARIBBEAN · INFRASTRUCTURE
LOADING MAP…

The glow marks this situation's center — its size follows the current intensity (63/100). Every dot is a real place — hover it for what it is; red dots are damaged or offline. Drag to pan; the buttons on the map add layers.

EARTHQUAKES · M4.5+ LAST 30D (USGS)

THEATER WEATHER · CAZEAU: SCATTERED CLOUDS · 26.3°C · WIND 2.16 M/S · RH 77% · AS OF 04:12 UTC · OPENWEATHER

TIMELINE

Event history for this dynamic is still being curated. The current assessment is built from the claims, sources, and score movement on this page.

NOW
Gang coalition controls most of Port-au-Prince as the Kenya-led security mission stalls and the state hollows out.
ACTORS · 6
STRUCTURED DATA · PRIMARY SOURCES

PRIMARY DATASETS · TRACKED REFERENCE · AUTOMATED SIGNAL EXTRACTION IN A LATER PHASE

RAW SIGNAL · LIVE
INGESTION V0 · RELEVANCE-FILTERED
UNVERIFIED SIGNAL · 8 ITEMS NOT YET CONFIRMED ON-TOPICZapping Haiti of July 19 , 2026 - HaitiLibre . com : Haiti news 7 / 7haitilibre.com · JUL 19 · 19:45ZIve never stepped foot in Haiti , but keeping its story alive is on mehaitiantimes.com · JUL 19 · 18:30ZLetters for Sunday , July 19 , 2026dailygazette.com · JUL 19 · 17:00ZMore than 2 , 000 Haitians in the area set to lose their legal immigration status next Fridaywslr.org · JUL 18 · 19:30ZHaiti: IMAWG Haïti : Compte rendu de réunion, en ligne, 15 juillet 2026 [Meeting Minutes]reliefweb.int · JUL 17 · 19:07ZUN warns of mass killings in Haiti - Jamaica Observerjamaicaobserver.com · JUL 17 · 16:00ZHaiti : Training the next generation to fight corruptioncaribbeanherald.com · JUL 17 · 13:15ZSafe Houses Amid Growing Sexual Violence in Haitiborgenproject.org · JUL 17 · 12:00Z

RAW FEED — NOT YET EXTRACTED INTO CLAIMS · OFF-TOPIC ITEMS ARE FILTERED BUT KEPT FOR AUDIT · LINKS LEAVE VUCA NEWS

COMMON QUESTIONS
What is happening with Haiti Gang Collapse?

Gang coalition controls most of Port-au-Prince as the Kenya-led security mission stalls and the state hollows out. Viv Ansanm gangs hold an estimated 85% of the capital, blockading the port, airport corridors, and highways while a transitional council flails without an elected government. The UN-backed, Kenya-led Multinational Security Support mission remains under-manned and under-funded, and Washington is pushing to convert it into a larger 'gang suppression force.' Haiti's status as one of the few remaining diplomatic allies of Taiwan keeps Beijing engaged diplomatically—blocking or shaping UN action and dangling recognition-for-investment leverage.

How serious is the situation right now?

The VUCA index reads 63/100 (0 = calm, 100 = critical) and is steady over the last 14 days. The score is computed daily from measured inputs and explains itself on this page.

How does VUCA News know this?

Haiti Gang Collapse carries 0 published claims, each linked to its evidence chain and verification state. Nothing publishes without passing the verification pipeline; the method is public at vucanews.com/methodology.

RELATED DYNAMICS