VUCA News scores the world's live geopolitical situations from evidence-chained claims — what changed, why it matters, and what to watch next. Updated daily.

ADIZ incursions doubled over 14 days; two carrier groups now inside the first island chain.

Strikes on grid substations resumed after five weeks; a Russian bridgehead north of Kupiansk was confirmed by geolocation.

Fourth consecutive week without a successful strike on commercial shipping in the Bab el-Mandeb corridor.

Alliance of Sahel States announced a joint border force; ECOWAS mediation stalled for a third round.

Pyongyang's missile-test pause reached a sixth week; the inter-Korean military hotline was reactivated.

Record early opening of the Northern Sea Route; Rosatom published revised icebreaker escort tariffs.

IAEA reports continued loss of continuity of knowledge at two declared enrichment sites.

MOFCOM extended export licensing to gallium and germanium processing equipment; new U.S. fab-tool rules entered force.