VUCA NEWS · ACCURACY
The receipts
YOUNG RECORD, ON PURPOSE · The clock started July 4, 2026 — nothing here predates it and nothing gets backfilled. The first forecast resolutions land in late July; until then this page is a promise being kept in public, not yet a scoreboard. Every snapshot below is append-only.
Everything on this page is append-only: daily score snapshots as the engine wrote them, forecast questions scored against what actually happened, and the full log of revisions to published claims — including the ones that were contradicted. Nothing is retroactively edited. The clock started 2026-07-04.
BEAT THE AIOur AI baseline, @vuca_ai, forecasts every open question and is scored in public against the crowd and the top forecasters — no cherry-picking, every call on the record. Think you can out-predict it?FORECAST THE OPEN QUESTIONS →
FORECAST SCOREBOARD · 0 RESOLVED
No questions have resolved yet — the first entries appear when open questions pass their close dates and the desk rules on the written criteria. From then on, every resolution lands here permanently: crowd, AI baseline, and top forecasters, scored side by side.
SCORE HISTORY · 48 DYNAMICS
Iran Nuclear Program
2026-07-04 → 2026-07-31 · 27 SNAPSHOTS
61
-12
Korean Peninsula Signaling
2026-07-04 → 2026-07-31 · 27 SNAPSHOTS
50
+2
Sahel Security Cascade
2026-07-04 → 2026-07-31 · 27 SNAPSHOTS
53
-9
Arctic Route Competition
2026-07-04 → 2026-07-30 · 26 SNAPSHOTS
50
+6
Ebola Outbreak Tracking
2026-07-05 → 2026-07-31 · 26 SNAPSHOTS
38
-14
Gaza War
2026-07-05 → 2026-07-31 · 26 SNAPSHOTS
42
-45
Global Semiconductor Competition
2026-07-04 → 2026-07-30 · 26 SNAPSHOTS
58
-8
Mexico Cartel Conflict
2026-07-05 → 2026-07-31 · 26 SNAPSHOTS
48
-20
New World Screwworm
2026-07-04 → 2026-07-30 · 26 SNAPSHOTS
51
-4
Red Sea Maritime Disruption
2026-07-04 → 2026-07-30 · 26 SNAPSHOTS
56
-2
Russia–Ukraine War
2026-07-04 → 2026-07-30 · 26 SNAPSHOTS
63
-18
Taiwan Strait Pressure
2026-07-04 → 2026-07-30 · 26 SNAPSHOTS
61
-16
Critical Mineral Leverage
2026-07-05 → 2026-07-30 · 25 SNAPSHOTS
49
-13
H5N1 Panzootic Watch
2026-07-05 → 2026-07-30 · 25 SNAPSHOTS
51
-1
Myanmar Civil War
2026-07-05 → 2026-07-30 · 25 SNAPSHOTS
48
-20
PRC Infrastructure Intrusions
2026-07-05 → 2026-07-30 · 25 SNAPSHOTS
49
+1
South China Sea Standoff
2026-07-05 → 2026-07-30 · 25 SNAPSHOTS
37
-31
US Dollar Security
2026-07-05 → 2026-07-30 · 25 SNAPSHOTS
50
+2
US Midterm Integrity
2026-07-05 → 2026-07-30 · 25 SNAPSHOTS
45
-13
Fertilizer Supply Security
2026-07-07 → 2026-07-31 · 24 SNAPSHOTS
44
-15
Global Grain Security
2026-07-07 → 2026-07-31 · 24 SNAPSHOTS
46
-13
Construction Sand Scarcity
2026-07-07 → 2026-07-30 · 23 SNAPSHOTS
52
+11
DRC Great Lakes Conflict
2026-07-08 → 2026-07-31 · 23 SNAPSHOTS
37
-34
Essequibo Dispute
2026-07-07 → 2026-07-30 · 23 SNAPSHOTS
49
±0
Fentanyl Precursor Chains
2026-07-07 → 2026-07-30 · 23 SNAPSHOTS
47
-11
Global Water Security
2026-07-07 → 2026-07-30 · 23 SNAPSHOTS
46
-11
India–Pakistan Crisis
2026-07-08 → 2026-07-31 · 23 SNAPSHOTS
45
-25
Orbital Security Contest
2026-07-07 → 2026-07-30 · 23 SNAPSHOTS
48
-2
Serbia–Kosovo Tensions
2026-07-07 → 2026-07-30 · 23 SNAPSHOTS
48
-5
Transnational Scam Networks
2026-07-07 → 2026-07-30 · 23 SNAPSHOTS
52
-7
Central Asia Realignment
2026-07-08 → 2026-07-30 · 22 SNAPSHOTS
51
+8
Chinese Distant-Water Fishing
2026-07-08 → 2026-07-30 · 22 SNAPSHOTS
51
+8
Sudan Civil War
2026-07-08 → 2026-07-30 · 22 SNAPSHOTS
49
-30
Russian Mercenary Expansion
2026-07-09 → 2026-07-30 · 21 SNAPSHOTS
46
-12
Israel–Iran Confrontation
2026-07-14 → 2026-07-31 · 17 SNAPSHOTS
55
-19
Global AI Governance Race
2026-07-14 → 2026-07-30 · 16 SNAPSHOTS
50
-8
Syria Post-Assad Transition
2026-07-14 → 2026-07-30 · 16 SNAPSHOTS
49
-19
Venezuela Regime Pressure
2026-07-14 → 2026-07-30 · 16 SNAPSHOTS
54
-17
European Migration Politics
2026-07-18 → 2026-07-30 · 12 SNAPSHOTS
68
+12
American Industrial Reshoring
2026-07-19 → 2026-07-30 · 11 SNAPSHOTS
64
+16
Democratized Warfare
2026-07-19 → 2026-07-30 · 11 SNAPSHOTS
69
+7
Global Oil Markets
2026-07-20 → 2026-07-31 · 11 SNAPSHOTS
69
+7
Global Wildfire Season
2026-07-19 → 2026-07-30 · 11 SNAPSHOTS
64
+2
China Economic Slowdown
2026-07-20 → 2026-07-30 · 10 SNAPSHOTS
62
+10
Haiti Gang Collapse
2026-07-20 → 2026-07-30 · 10 SNAPSHOTS
65
-3
Ukraine Home Front
2026-07-20 → 2026-07-30 · 10 SNAPSHOTS
68
+10
Natural Rubber Security
2026-07-22 → 2026-07-31 · 9 SNAPSHOTS
53
+1
Lebanon Stability Crisis
2026-07-23 → 2026-07-30 · 7 SNAPSHOTS
65
+4
CLAIMS HOLDING UP · INTERIM READ
ON THE RECORD1391
STILL STANDING138499.4%
IN ACTIVE DISPUTE7
CONTRADICTED BY LATER EVIDENCE7
An interim signal, not a verdict: most claims are young, and a claim that stands unchallenged is not yet a claim proven right. The scored record above (forecasts against outcomes) is the real test; this ledger just shows we count our disputes in public.
CLAIM REVISION LOG · LAST 40
CORRECTION LATENCY · When the record turns out wrong, the median time from publication to an approved contradicting revision is 15.7 days (n=7). Slow corrections are a trust defect; this number is on the record so you can hold us to it.
CONTRADICTED· CONF → 0.60 · 2026-08-02RUSSIA–UKRAINE WAR
Trump announced at the NATO summit that the U.S. will grant Ukraine a license to produce Patriot missile interceptors.
Trump reverses Patriot license pledge, undercutting published summit claim; needs human read.
CORROBORATED· CONF → 0.68 · 2026-08-02ISRAEL–IRAN CONFRONTATION
The current Iran war began on 28 February 2026 with US and Israeli strikes on Iran.
Feb 28 war-start date already established by multiple published claims; new independent source corroborates, not new info.
CORROBORATED· CONF → 0.72 · 2026-08-02IRAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM
A tentative US-Israel-Iran ceasefire brokered in June 2026 collapsed the week of 6 July.
Compound summary of already-published June MoU signing and July ceasefire collapse; no new information.
CORROBORATED· CONF → 0.68 · 2026-08-02IRAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM
A tentative US-Israel-Iran ceasefire brokered in June 2026 collapsed the week of 6 July.
Interim deal collapse already published; corroborates existing ceasefire-collapse claim.
CORROBORATED· CONF → 0.72 · 2026-08-02IRAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM
US and Israel launched strikes on Iran on 28 February 2026, opening the war.
Feb 28 US-Israel attack already well established; corroborates published claim, not new.
CORROBORATED· CONF → 0.83 · 2026-08-02ISRAEL–IRAN CONFRONTATION
US and Saudi forces conducted precision strikes in eastern Iraq on July 28 against Iran-aligned militias, per CENTCOM.
Same fact as published US-Saudi Iraq strikes; corroboration, not new info.
CONTRADICTED· CONF → 0.50 · 2026-08-02ISRAEL–IRAN CONFRONTATION
Washington and Riyadh announced a civilian nuclear accord this week that did not include Saudi-Israel normalization.
Tension with published claim that accord excluded normalization; candidate says Trump conditioned it on normalization.
CORROBORATED· CONF → 0.80 · 2026-08-02ISRAEL–IRAN CONFRONTATION
US State Department official said next Israel–Lebanon talks will take place in Rome from August 4-6.
Same Rome Aug 4 Israel-Lebanon talks already published; corroborates existing claim.
CORROBORATED· CONF → 0.75 · 2026-08-02ISRAEL–IRAN CONFRONTATION
Netanyahu met Trump at the White House on July 28, 2026, to discuss Iran.
Same July 28 Trump-Netanyahu meeting already published; new source corroborates, not new information.
CONTRADICTED· CONF → 0.55 · 2026-08-02GLOBAL GRAIN SECURITY
U.S. winter wheat crop expected to be smallest since 1965, with all-wheat harvested acreage the lowest since 1877.
Overlaps published wheat claim but base years differ (planted lowest 1919 vs harvested 1877); reconcile metrics.
CORROBORATED· CONF → 0.80 · 2026-08-02RED SEA MARITIME DISRUPTION
Brent crude rose more than 6 percent, breaking above US$100 a barrel for the first time since May.
Corroborates published Brent-above-$100 claim from independent source; passing mention in food-prices article, not new info.
CORROBORATED· CONF → 0.86 · 2026-08-02RED SEA MARITIME DISRUPTION
Houthis announced a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia, threatening ships loading or discharging Saudi oil.
Vague restatement of blockade declaration already covered by xc-c86ffa49/xc-0233391c; no new information.
CORROBORATED· CONF → 0.62 · 2026-08-02RED SEA MARITIME DISRUPTION
Houthis are considering imposing transit fees on most commercial ships crossing Bab el-Mandeb, sources told Reuters.
Same Reuters fee-consideration report already published (xc-9068989c); same source, not independent corroboration.
CORROBORATED· CONF → 0.78 · 2026-08-02GAZA WAR
At least 1,072 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza since the ceasefire took effect, per the Hamas-run health ministry.
Corroborates published post-ceasefire toll with updated figure; unattributed editorial framing.
CORROBORATED· CONF → 0.75 · 2026-08-02GAZA WAR
Hamas named Khalil al-Hayya, its former chief wartime negotiator, as new head of its political bureau.
Corroborates published Hayya appointment; not new information.
CORROBORATED· CONF → 0.62 · 2026-08-02RUSSIA–UKRAINE WAR
Ukrainian drones damaged at least seven Wildberries warehouses in recent days, destroying about 10 percent of storage capacity.
Restates already-published Wildberries warehouse-strike fact; not new information. Vaguer sibling of b29ebed8's article.
CORROBORATED· CONF → 0.55 · 2026-08-02ISRAEL–IRAN CONFRONTATION
Iran struck a cargo vessel on June 25 after commercial ships used an alternative route protected by the US Navy.
Same June 25 Hormuz cargo-vessel strike as published, adds UKMTO attribution; corroborates rather than new.
CORROBORATED· CONF → 0.66 · 2026-07-30ISRAEL–IRAN CONFRONTATION
U.S. strikes hit surveillance sites, military logistics infrastructure, underground weapons storage and maritime capabilities in Iran.
Same target list as published strike-composition claim; corroboration, not new info.
CONTRADICTED· CONF → 0.55 · 2026-07-30ISRAEL–IRAN CONFRONTATION
Brent crude oil rose 7.8% to $81.92 a barrel following the strait attacks.
Editorial claims $100/barrel, contradicting published $81.92 figure; weak opinion source.
CORROBORATED· CONF → 0.66 · 2026-07-30ISRAEL–IRAN CONFRONTATION
CENTCOM confirmed a seventh nightly wave of US strikes on Iranian surveillance, logistics, weapons storage, and naval targets.
Not new; restates published seventh-night CENTCOM strikes. Aggregator source, weak independence.
CONTRADICTED· CONF → 0.48 · 2026-07-30ISRAEL–IRAN CONFRONTATION
Anti-Houthi Yemeni Defense Ministry struck the runway of Houthi-controlled Sana'a International Airport to prevent an Iranian plane from landing.
Attributes Sanaa runway strike to Royal Saudi Storm Shadows, conflicting with published Yemeni-MoD attribution.
CORROBORATED· CONF → 0.68 · 2026-07-30ISRAEL–IRAN CONFRONTATION
Strikes in Iran's coastal Hormozgan Province killed three and wounded eight, damaging two bridges and a road tunnel.
Hormozgan casualties/bridge damage already published; independent Tier-2 corroboration, FIRMS 37 nearby.
CORROBORATED· CONF → 0.62 · 2026-07-30ISRAEL–IRAN CONFRONTATION
Iran suspended its commitments under the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, accusing the US of violating the agreement.
Iran suspending interim-deal commitments already published; Tier-2 independent corroboration.
CORROBORATED· CONF → 0.58 · 2026-07-30ISRAEL–IRAN CONFRONTATION
IRGC claimed it targeted Isa Air Base in Bahrain, said to house US combat aircraft, and an intelligence center.
IRGC Bahrain Isa Air Base strike claim already published; independent Tier-2 source corroborates, FIRMS 31 at 5km.
CORROBORATED· CONF → 0.55 · 2026-07-30ISRAEL–IRAN CONFRONTATION
IRGC claimed it struck Camp Arifjan and destroyed a radar installation at Ali Al-Salem Air Base in Kuwait.
IRGC claim on Camp Arifjan/Ali Al Salem already published; independent Tier-2 corroboration, FIRMS 24 nearby.
CORROBORATED· CONF → 0.68 · 2026-07-30ISRAEL–IRAN CONFRONTATION
Kuwait's utility ministry confirmed damage to a power plant and desalination complex, the second such attack on infrastructure in two days.
Overlaps published xc-218d888f Kuwait power/water strike; corroborates, adds oil facility. Weak source.
CORROBORATED· CONF → 0.65 · 2026-07-30ISRAEL–IRAN CONFRONTATION
Iran suspended its commitments under the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, accusing the US of violating the agreement.
Same fact as published xc-956065ee; named-official quote corroborates Iran suspending interim-deal commitments.
CORROBORATED· CONF → 0.60 · 2026-07-30ISRAEL–IRAN CONFRONTATION
GCC Secretary-General Albudaiwi condemned Iran's attacks on Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan as war crimes.
Same GCC war-crime condemnation as published xc-e98003bc; corroboration, not new info.
CORROBORATED· CONF → 0.65 · 2026-07-30ISRAEL–IRAN CONFRONTATION
Kuwait's utility ministry confirmed damage to a power plant and desalination complex, the second such attack on infrastructure in two days.
Restates published Kuwait power/desal-plant damage; aggregator corroboration, not new.
CORROBORATED· CONF → 0.65 · 2026-07-30ISRAEL–IRAN CONFRONTATION
Iran suspended its commitments under the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, accusing the US of violating the agreement.
Restates published Iran-suspends-commitments fact from another source; corroboration only.
CORROBORATED· CONF → 0.60 · 2026-07-30ISRAEL–IRAN CONFRONTATION
The United States conducted new strikes targeting Iran.
Generic image-caption restatement of published US-strikes fact; corroborates only.
CORROBORATED· CONF → 0.65 · 2026-07-30ISRAEL–IRAN CONFRONTATION
U.S. strikes hit surveillance sites, military logistics infrastructure, underground weapons storage and maritime capabilities in Iran.
CENTCOM target list restates published strike description; corroboration not new information.
CORROBORATED· CONF → 0.58 · 2026-07-30ISRAEL–IRAN CONFRONTATION
IRGC claimed it targeted Isa Air Base in Bahrain, said to house US combat aircraft, and an intelligence center.
Iranian-military claim corroborates published IRGC Isa Air Base Bahrain claim; FIRMS nearby.
CORROBORATED· CONF → 0.50 · 2026-07-30ISRAEL–IRAN CONFRONTATION
IRGC claimed it struck Camp Arifjan and destroyed a radar installation at Ali Al-Salem Air Base in Kuwait.
Iranian-army claim on Kuwait bases; corroborates published IRGC Ali Al-Salem claim.
CORROBORATED· CONF → 0.60 · 2026-07-30ISRAEL–IRAN CONFRONTATION
U.S. strikes hit surveillance sites, military logistics infrastructure, underground weapons storage and maritime capabilities in Iran.
Corroborates published strikes on Iranian infrastructure/maritime targets; not new.
CORROBORATED· CONF → 0.66 · 2026-07-30ISRAEL–IRAN CONFRONTATION
Bahrain came under renewed attack early Tuesday and sounded its missile alert siren as Iran retaliated over US airstrikes.
Corroborates published Bahrain attack; FIRMS 31 detections 3.2km strongly support.
CORROBORATED· CONF → 0.68 · 2026-07-30ISRAEL–IRAN CONFRONTATION
Kuwait's utility ministry confirmed damage to a power plant and desalination complex, the second such attack on infrastructure in two days.
Corroborates published Kuwait power/desalination strike; FIRMS 21 detections nearby.
CORROBORATED· CONF → 0.68 · 2026-07-30ISRAEL–IRAN CONFRONTATION
CENTCOM confirmed a seventh nightly wave of US strikes on Iranian surveillance, logistics, weapons storage, and naval targets.
Corroborates already-published seventh-night strikes; not new information.
CORROBORATED· CONF → 0.82 · 2026-07-30RUSSIA–UKRAINE WAR
Trump announced at the NATO summit that the U.S. will grant Ukraine a license to produce Patriot missile interceptors.
Independent corroboration of published Patriot-license claim; not new information.
CORROBORATED· CONF → 0.70 · 2026-07-30IRAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and family members were killed on 28 February 2026 during US-Israeli strikes on Iran.
Restates published Khamenei-killed claim from new independent source; captured as corroboration.
METHOD
Scores are recomputed daily by the same pipeline that publishes the site; each day's snapshot is written once and never edited. Forecast questions are binary and resolved against criteria written before they open. Submissions are scored with proper rules (Brier and log), which reward calibration rather than confidence — see the forecasts page for open questions and the full leaderboard. Published claims carry their provenance and revision history on their permalink pages.