The receipts
Everything on this page is append-only: daily score snapshots as the engine wrote them, forecast questions scored against what actually happened, and the full log of revisions to published claims — including the ones that were contradicted. Nothing is retroactively edited. The clock started 2026-07-04.
No questions have resolved yet — the first entries appear when open questions pass their close dates and the desk rules on the written criteria. From then on, every resolution lands here permanently: crowd, AI baseline, and top forecasters, scored side by side.
The engine writes one snapshot per dynamic per day. Charts appear once at least two days have accumulated.
Scores are recomputed daily by the same pipeline that publishes the site; each day's snapshot is written once and never edited. Forecast questions are binary and resolved against criteria written before they open. Submissions are scored with proper rules (Brier and log), which reward calibration rather than confidence — see the forecasts page for open questions and the full leaderboard. Published claims carry their provenance and revision history on their permalink pages.