VUCA
61/100
VUCA INDEX
SITUATION · NORTH AMERICA · SECURITY · ORGANIZED CRIME · US-MEXICO RELATIONS · NARCOTICS

Mexico Cartel Conflict

VUCA INDEX 61/100STEADYCONFIDENCE 0.50±0 / 14D
WHAT CHANGED · LAST 72H
Chapitos–Mayo faction war keeps Culiacán and Sinaloa under sustained violence after Zambada's 2024 US capture.
US designates cartels as FTOs and signals tariffs and possible unilateral strikes on Mexican soil.
Fentanyl precursor flows and interdiction pressure intensify as 2026 US midterms loom.
INTENSITY · OBSERVED + FORECAST
BASELINE 60+1 VS BASELINE
90D OBSERVEDFORECAST · DASHED
VUCA COMPONENTS
Volatility68
Uncertainty58
Complexity64
Ambiguity55
MOMENTUM ±0 / 14DHORIZON 90D0 CLAIMS · 0 EVIDENCE ITEMS
THEATER · NORTH AMERICA · INFRASTRUCTURE
LOADING MAP…
BLOOM = CURRENT INTENSITY 61RED = DAMAGED / OFFLINETHERMAL = NASA FIRMS 24HDRAG TO PAN
DOSSIER DEVELOPING

This situation is actively monitored. Its narrative and claims build here as sources are ingested and each claim is verified — evidence first, always.

See a complete dossier: Taiwan Strait Pressure
STRUCTURED DATA · PRIMARY SOURCES

PRIMARY DATASETS · TRACKED REFERENCE · AUTOMATED SIGNAL EXTRACTION IN A LATER PHASE

RAW SIGNAL · LIVE
INGESTION V0 · UNPROCESSED

RAW FEED — NOT YET EXTRACTED INTO CLAIMS · LINKS LEAVE VUCA NEWS

RELATED DYNAMICS