61/100
VUCA INDEX
SITUATION · NORTH AMERICA · SECURITY · ORGANIZED CRIME · US-MEXICO RELATIONS · NARCOTICS
Mexico Cartel Conflict
VUCA INDEX 61/100STEADYCONFIDENCE 0.50±0 / 14D
WHAT CHANGED · LAST 72H
—Chapitos–Mayo faction war keeps Culiacán and Sinaloa under sustained violence after Zambada's 2024 US capture.
—US designates cartels as FTOs and signals tariffs and possible unilateral strikes on Mexican soil.
—Fentanyl precursor flows and interdiction pressure intensify as 2026 US midterms loom.
INTENSITY · OBSERVED + FORECAST
BASELINE 60+1 VS BASELINE
90D OBSERVEDBASELINE = TRAILING 90D MEDIANFORECAST · DASHED
VUCA COMPONENTS
Volatility68
Uncertainty58
Complexity64
Ambiguity55
MOMENTUM ±0 / 14DHORIZON 90D0 CLAIMS · 0 EVIDENCE ITEMS
THEATER · NORTH AMERICA · INFRASTRUCTURE
LOADING MAP…
BLOOM = CURRENT INTENSITY 61RED = DAMAGED / OFFLINETHERMAL = NASA FIRMS 24HDRAG TO PAN
DOSSIER DEVELOPING
This situation is actively monitored. Its narrative and claims build here as sources are ingested and each claim is verified — evidence first, always.
See a complete dossier: Taiwan Strait Pressure →STRUCTURED DATA · PRIMARY SOURCES
CBP Drug Seizure Statistics↗Monthly fentanyl and drug seizure volumes at US ports of entry and borders.US Customs and Border Protection · monthlyMexico Homicide Statistics (SESNSP)↗Official monthly intentional homicide and crime figures by state.Secretariado Ejecutivo del Sistema Nacional de Seguridad Pública · monthly
PRIMARY DATASETS · TRACKED REFERENCE · AUTOMATED SIGNAL EXTRACTION IN A LATER PHASE
RAW SIGNAL · LIVE
INGESTION V0 · UNPROCESSEDCanada Seizes 7 Tons Of Drugs , Fentanyl Chemicals , And Signal Jammers In China - Linked Narco Bust↗zerohedge.com · JUL 5 · 00:15ZArdillos↗insightcrime.org · JUL 3 · 19:12ZJobanis de Jesús Ávila Villadiego, alias ‘Chiquito Malo’↗insightcrime.org · JUL 3 · 15:19ZWhat ‘Euphoria’ Gets Wrong and Right About Border Crime↗insightcrime.org · JUL 3 · 14:38ZLarry Amaury Álvarez Núñez, alias ‘Larry Changa’↗insightcrime.org · JUL 2 · 16:40ZOn the Radar: Mexico’s Criminal Pressure Points: Drugs, Corruption, and CJNG Fuel Theft↗insightcrime.org · JUL 2 · 16:15ZTren de Aragua’s ‘Johan Petrica’: Fugitive and Potential Heir↗insightcrime.org · JUL 1 · 18:48ZThe InSight Take: El Salvador’s Mass Trials Put Bukele’s Gang Crackdown on Display↗insightcrime.org · JUN 30 · 15:40Z
RAW FEED — NOT YET EXTRACTED INTO CLAIMS · LINKS LEAVE VUCA NEWS
RELATED DYNAMICS