VUCA NEWS · FORECASTS
What happens next — as a number
Every question is binary, dated, and resolved against written criteria. Submissions are scored with proper rules (Brier + log), so the leaderboard rewards calibration, not confidence. Forecast from any dossier, or start with the open questions below.
OPEN QUESTIONS · 213
ISRAEL–IRAN CONFRONTATION · CLOSES 2026-08-31 · 13D LEFT
Will the Houthis release the detained ICRC aircraft crew held at Sana'a airport before 2026-08-31?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
GAZA WAR · CLOSES 2026-09-01 · 14D LEFT
Will members of the new technocratic Gaza administration committee (NCAG) enter Gaza and begin operating before September 1, 2026?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
RUSSIA–UKRAINE WAR · CLOSES 2026-09-01 · 14D LEFT
Will the EU's 21st sanctions package be formally adopted with the oil price cap intact (no six-month freeze) before September 1, 2026?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
GLOBAL WATER SECURITY · CLOSES 2026-09-05 · 18D LEFT
Will at least one major Santiago-area ski resort (Valle Nevado, El Colorado, La Parva, or Farellones) report more than half of its slopes closed due to snow shortage at any point during August 2026?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
KOREAN PENINSULA SIGNALING · CLOSES 2026-09-07 · 20D LEFT
Will North Korea place the destroyer Kang Kon in active service by September 7, 2026?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
RUSSIA–UKRAINE WAR · CLOSES 2026-09-15 · 28D LEFT
Will Ukraine conduct another drone strike reaching the St. Petersburg / Leningrad region before September 15, 2026?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
GLOBAL OIL MARKETS · CLOSES 2026-09-30 · 43D LEFT
Will the US national average retail gasoline price reach or exceed $4.25 per gallon before September 30, 2026?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
EBOLA OUTBREAK TRACKING · CLOSES 2026-09-30 · 43D LEFT
Will the DRC's cumulative confirmed Ebola case count reach at least 3,000 on or before 2026-09-30?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
EBOLA OUTBREAK TRACKING · CLOSES 2026-09-30 · 43D LEFT
Will WHO or Uganda's health ministry declare Uganda's Ebola outbreak officially over on or before 2026-09-30?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
INDIA–PAKISTAN CRISIS · CLOSES 2026-09-30 · 43D LEFT
Will Pakistan's government or military publicly accuse India of sponsoring or backing a Balochistan attack that occurred in July 2026, before September 30, 2026?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
GLOBAL WILDFIRE SEASON · CLOSES 2026-09-30 · 43D LEFT
Will another single wildfire in France force the evacuation of at least 10,000 people between 2026-07-31 and 2026-09-30?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
KOREAN PENINSULA SIGNALING · CLOSES 2026-09-30 · 43D LEFT
Will North Korea conduct a ballistic missile launch on or before September 30, 2026?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
SAHEL SECURITY CASCADE · CLOSES 2026-09-30 · 43D LEFT
Will Azawad/FLA separatist forces capture the northern Malian town of Anefis before 2026-10-01?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
AMERICAN INDUSTRIAL RESHORING · CLOSES 2026-09-30 · 43D LEFT
Will the Canadian federal government announce retaliatory tariffs or new duties on US-origin goods in response to the newly announced US tariffs before 2026-09-30?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
NEW WORLD SCREWWORM · CLOSES 2026-09-30 · 43D LEFT
Will USDA APHIS report at least 100 cumulative confirmed New World screwworm cases in the United States by September 30, 2026?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
GAZA WAR · CLOSES 2026-10-01 · 44D LEFT
Will Israel begin a withdrawal of forces from southern Lebanon before October 1, 2026?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
GLOBAL AI GOVERNANCE RACE · CLOSES 2026-10-01 · 44D LEFT
Will Google file a legal challenge against the European Commission's 16 July 2026 DMA Android AI-interoperability specifications at the EU General Court on or before 2026-10-01?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
RUSSIA–UKRAINE WAR · CLOSES 2026-10-01 · 44D LEFT
Will Russia establish confirmed full control of Kostyantynivka (Donetsk oblast) before October 1, 2026?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
GAZA WAR · CLOSES 2026-10-01 · 44D LEFT
Will Hezbollah launch at least one rocket, missile, or drone into Israeli territory before October 1, 2026?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
TAIWAN STRAIT PRESSURE · CLOSES 2026-10-01 · 44D LEFT
Will the PLA announce a named large-scale joint military exercise encircling or surrounding Taiwan (e.g. a 'Joint Sword' iteration) before October 1, 2026?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
RED SEA MARITIME DISRUPTION · CLOSES 2026-10-05 · 48D LEFT
Will a commercial vessel be struck by a Houthi attack in the Red Sea or Bab el-Mandeb before 2026-10-05?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
RED SEA MARITIME DISRUPTION · CLOSES 2026-10-05 · 48D LEFT
Will Houthi forces conduct a claimed attack against Saudi Arabian territory before 2026-10-05?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
US MIDTERM INTEGRITY · CLOSES 2026-10-15 · 58D LEFT
Will the US Election Assistance Commission formally adopt a change to the national mail voter registration form requiring documentary proof of US citizenship before the 2026 general election?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
ISRAEL–IRAN CONFRONTATION · CLOSES 2026-10-17 · 60D LEFT
Will the Strait of Hormuz experience a measurable disruption to commercial tanker transits (Iran mining, blockade, or seizure causing a documented drop in daily transits) before 2026-10-17?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
ISRAEL–IRAN CONFRONTATION · CLOSES 2026-10-17 · 60D LEFT
Will Houthi forces conduct at least one confirmed attack on a commercial vessel in the Red Sea or Bab-el-Mandeb before 2026-09-30?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
ISRAEL–IRAN CONFRONTATION · CLOSES 2026-10-17 · 60D LEFT
Will the US and Iran cease all publicly announced military strikes against each other for 14 consecutive days before 2026-09-30?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
IRAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM · CLOSES 2026-10-17 · 60D LEFT
Will the Strait of Hormuz gateway-confidence index (gateconf:hormuz) fall below 20 on any day before 31 October 2026?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
IRAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM · CLOSES 2026-10-17 · 60D LEFT
Will monthly Strait of Hormuz transit counts (portwatch:hormuz) drop by 50% or more below the 12 July 2026 baseline of 10 before 31 October 2026?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
IRAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM · CLOSES 2026-10-17 · 60D LEFT
Will US strikes on Iranian territory cease for 30 or more consecutive days before 31 October 2026?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
RED SEA MARITIME DISRUPTION · CLOSES 2026-10-17 · 60D LEFT
Will EIA Brent crude spot close above $95/bbl on any reported day before 2026-10-19?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
RED SEA MARITIME DISRUPTION · CLOSES 2026-10-17 · 60D LEFT
Will Yemen experience a nationwide internet outage (net:outage_ye above 0) on any reported day before 2026-10-19?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
RED SEA MARITIME DISRUPTION · CLOSES 2026-10-17 · 60D LEFT
Will PortWatch Bab el-Mandeb transits reach 55% or more of the 2024 baseline for any reported week before 2026-10-19?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
ISRAEL–IRAN CONFRONTATION · CLOSES 2026-10-17 · 60D LEFT
Will the U.S. conduct another publicly announced military strike on targets inside Iranian territory before 2026-10-17?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
KOREAN PENINSULA SIGNALING · CLOSES 2026-10-17 · 60D LEFT
Will North Korea still be responding to the inter-Korean western military communication line's regular daily checks as of October 17, 2026?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
ISRAEL–IRAN CONFRONTATION · CLOSES 2026-10-18 · 61D LEFT
Will the IAEA report a loss or suspension of inspector access to any Iranian nuclear facility before 2026-12-31?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
ISRAEL–IRAN CONFRONTATION · CLOSES 2026-10-18 · 61D LEFT
Will any GCC state publicly announce restrictions on or reduction of US military base access before 2026-10-31?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
ISRAEL–IRAN CONFRONTATION · CLOSES 2026-10-18 · 61D LEFT
Will Brent crude spot price close above $95/bbl on any day before 2026-10-17?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
IRAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM · CLOSES 2026-10-18 · 61D LEFT
Will the Strait of Hormuz record a full closure or a single-day transit count below 5 (portwatch:hormuz) before 31 October 2026?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
IRAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM · CLOSES 2026-10-18 · 61D LEFT
Will Brent front-month spot (eia:brent) close above $110/bbl on any day before 31 October 2026?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
IRAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM · CLOSES 2026-10-18 · 61D LEFT
Will Iran publicly reaffirm or supersede the Islamabad MOU with a signed agreement before 30 September 2026?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
RED SEA MARITIME DISRUPTION · CLOSES 2026-10-18 · 61D LEFT
Will PortWatch Suez Canal daily transit calls exceed 60% of the 2024 baseline on any reported date before 2026-10-20?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
RED SEA MARITIME DISRUPTION · CLOSES 2026-10-18 · 61D LEFT
Will Brent crude spot (eia:brent) close above $95/bbl on any reported day before 2026-10-20?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
RED SEA MARITIME DISRUPTION · CLOSES 2026-10-18 · 61D LEFT
Will Bab el-Mandeb gate confidence (gateconf:bab_el_mandeb) fall below 60 on any reported day before 2026-10-20?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
ISRAEL–IRAN CONFRONTATION · CLOSES 2026-10-25 · 68D LEFT
Will Israel conduct a publicly announced strike specifically on an Iranian nuclear facility before 2026-12-31?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
ISRAEL–IRAN CONFRONTATION · CLOSES 2026-10-25 · 68D LEFT
Will Suez Canal weekly transit volumes fall at least 20% below the July 2026 baseline on any week before 2026-10-31?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
ISRAEL–IRAN CONFRONTATION · CLOSES 2026-10-25 · 68D LEFT
Will Hezbollah conduct at least one confirmed rocket or ground engagement across the Israel–Lebanon line before 2026-10-31?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
IRAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM · CLOSES 2026-10-25 · 68D LEFT
Will Strait of Hormuz daily transits (portwatch:hormuz) fall below 8 for five consecutive days before 31 December 2026?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
IRAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM · CLOSES 2026-10-25 · 68D LEFT
Will Brent front-month (eia:brent) close above $100/bbl on any day before 31 December 2026?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
IRAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM · CLOSES 2026-10-25 · 68D LEFT
Will Suez Canal daily transit counts fall at least 30% below their 2026-07 average before 31 October 2026?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
RED SEA MARITIME DISRUPTION · CLOSES 2026-10-25 · 68D LEFT
Will Suez Canal Authority monthly toll revenue exceed 85% of its 2024 baseline for any reported month before 2027-01-01?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
RED SEA MARITIME DISRUPTION · CLOSES 2026-10-25 · 68D LEFT
Will Brent crude spot (eia:brent) close above $100/bbl on any reported day before 2026-11-25?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
RED SEA MARITIME DISRUPTION · CLOSES 2026-10-25 · 68D LEFT
Will the Shanghai–North Europe SCFI container spot rate fall to or below its pre-2024-crisis level on any weekly print before 2027-01-01?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
GLOBAL WILDFIRE SEASON · CLOSES 2026-10-31 · 74D LEFT
Will France's cumulative wildfire burned area in 2026 exceed 50,000 hectares per EFFIS by 2026-10-31?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
IRAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM · CLOSES 2026-10-31 · 74D LEFT
Will the US or Israel conduct a further confirmed airstrike on Iranian territory between 2026-07-12 and 2026-10-31?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
EBOLA OUTBREAK TRACKING · CLOSES 2026-10-31 · 74D LEFT
Will the cumulative reported death toll of the DRC Ebola outbreak reach at least 600 on or before 2026-10-31?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
EBOLA OUTBREAK TRACKING · CLOSES 2026-10-31 · 74D LEFT
Will a confirmed Ebola case be reported in an African country other than DRC and Uganda on or before 2026-10-31?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
GLOBAL OIL MARKETS · CLOSES 2026-10-31 · 74D LEFT
Will front-month Brent crude settle at or above $95 per barrel on any trading day before October 31, 2026?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
LEBANON STABILITY CRISIS · CLOSES 2026-10-31 · 74D LEFT
Will Lebanon and Israel hold at least one further round of US-brokered talks after August 4, on or before October 31, 2026?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
NEW WORLD SCREWWORM · CLOSES 2026-11-30 · 104D LEFT
Will a confirmed New World screwworm case be reported in a US state other than Texas or New Mexico by November 30, 2026?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
EBOLA OUTBREAK TRACKING · CLOSES 2026-11-30 · 104D LEFT
Will the cumulative reported death toll of the DRC Ebola outbreak reach at least 1,000 on or before 2026-11-30?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
FENTANYL PRECURSOR CHAINS · CLOSES 2026-11-30 · 104D LEFT
Will Rocky Mountain HIDTA-reported fentanyl dosage units seized in Montana in Q2 2026 (Apr–Jun) be lower than the units seized in Q2 2025?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
TAIWAN STRAIT PRESSURE · CLOSES 2026-12-31 · 135D LEFT
Will Taiwan's Legislative Yuan approve the remaining (final one-third) portion of the $40 billion special defense package requested by Lai Ching-te before December 31, 2026?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
GLOBAL SEMICONDUCTOR COMPETITION · CLOSES 2026-12-31 · 135D LEFT
Will Apple be publicly confirmed to have begun purchasing memory chips from China's CXMT before 2026-12-31?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
SAHEL SECURITY CASCADE · CLOSES 2026-12-31 · 135D LEFT
Will Mali or Burkina Faso formally deposit an instrument of withdrawal from the ICC's Rome Statute before 2026-12-31?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
EBOLA OUTBREAK TRACKING · CLOSES 2026-12-31 · 135D LEFT
Will the WHO declare the DRC Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak officially over on or before 2026-12-31?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
GLOBAL WATER SECURITY · CLOSES 2026-12-31 · 135D LEFT
Will the Tamil Nadu government formally halt, cancel, or relocate the Parandur airport project before 2026-12-31?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
GLOBAL SEMICONDUCTOR COMPETITION · CLOSES 2026-12-31 · 135D LEFT
Will OpenAI publicly confirm that its Jalapeno inference chip has been deployed in production workloads before 2026-12-31?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
GLOBAL SEMICONDUCTOR COMPETITION · CLOSES 2026-12-31 · 135D LEFT
Will DeepSeek publicly confirm that its in-house AI inference chip has been taped out or entered production before 2026-12-31?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
SUDAN CIVIL WAR · CLOSES 2026-12-31 · 135D LEFT
Will the number of internally displaced persons in Sudan exceed 10 million before 2026-12-31?
75%
N=1 FORECASTERS
IRAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM · CLOSES 2026-12-31 · 135D LEFT
Will the IAEA confirm restored inspector access to Fordow or Natanz before 2026-12-31?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
SUDAN CIVIL WAR · CLOSES 2026-12-31 · 135D LEFT
Will cumulative fighting-related displacement in South Sudan during 2026 exceed 400,000 people before 2026-12-31?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
IRAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM · CLOSES 2026-12-31 · 135D LEFT
Will the IAEA confirm restored on-site inspector access at both Fordow and Natanz before 31 December 2026?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
GLOBAL WATER SECURITY · CLOSES 2026-12-31 · 135D LEFT
Will NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issue an El Niño Advisory declaring El Niño conditions present at any point before 2027-01-01?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
FERTILIZER SUPPLY SECURITY · CLOSES 2026-12-31 · 135D LEFT
Will the World Bank monthly fertilizer price index reach a new high above its Q1 2026 peak in any month from August through December 2026?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
FENTANYL PRECURSOR CHAINS · CLOSES 2026-12-31 · 135D LEFT
Will enacted federal appropriations for FY2027 fund the ONDCP High Intensity Drug Trafficking Areas (HIDTA) program at least 30% below its FY2026 enacted level?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
INDIA–PAKISTAN CRISIS · CLOSES 2026-12-31 · 135D LEFT
Will a militant attack in Indian-administered Kashmir kill 10 or more people before 2026-12-31?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
GLOBAL SEMICONDUCTOR COMPETITION · CLOSES 2026-12-31 · 135D LEFT
Will Micron publicly confirm the specific location and start of construction for its announced $3 billion U.S. semiconductor supply-chain investment on or before 2026-12-31?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
KOREAN PENINSULA SIGNALING · CLOSES 2026-12-31 · 135D LEFT
Will the ROK and DPRK governments hold direct official talks before December 31, 2026?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
GLOBAL WATER SECURITY · CLOSES 2026-12-31 · 135D LEFT
Will Texas Water Company lift its moratorium halting service to the nine planned Comal County developments before 2026-12-31?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
GLOBAL WATER SECURITY · CLOSES 2026-12-31 · 135D LEFT
Will the Texas Water Company's KT Water wells groundwater source begin delivering water before 2027-01-01?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
FERTILIZER SUPPLY SECURITY · CLOSES 2026-12-31 · 135D LEFT
Will India's Department of Fertilizers announce approval of at least one new gas-based urea manufacturing project under the National Investment Policy for Urea-2026 by December 31, 2026?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
SUDAN CIVIL WAR · CLOSES 2026-12-31 · 135D LEFT
Will the IPC confirm famine (IPC Phase 5) conditions in at least one Sudanese location not previously classified as famine, before 2026-12-31?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
SUDAN CIVIL WAR · CLOSES 2026-12-31 · 135D LEFT
Will an updated FAO or IPC report place the number of acutely food insecure people in Sudan at more than 21 million before 2026-12-31?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
SAHEL SECURITY CASCADE · CLOSES 2026-12-31 · 135D LEFT
Will the United States conduct a confirmed military strike against JNIM targets on Malian territory before 2026-12-31?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
SAHEL SECURITY CASCADE · CLOSES 2026-12-31 · 135D LEFT
Will any AES state (Mali, Niger, or Burkina Faso) announce a signed agreement to purchase US military equipment or services before 2026-12-31?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
AMERICAN INDUSTRIAL RESHORING · CLOSES 2026-12-31 · 135D LEFT
Will a US federal court issue an order blocking or staying the newly announced country-wide tariffs before 2026-12-31?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
RUSSIA–UKRAINE WAR · CLOSES 2027-01-01 · 136D LEFT
Will the US administration or Pentagon publicly announce a halt or indefinite suspension of new military aid packages to Ukraine before 2027-01-01?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
RUSSIA–UKRAINE WAR · CLOSES 2027-01-01 · 136D LEFT
Will Russia establish confirmed control of a new bridgehead west of the Oskil river near Kupiansk before January 1, 2027?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
RUSSIA–UKRAINE WAR · CLOSES 2027-01-01 · 136D LEFT
Will ISW or the Ukrainian General Staff confirm a sustained Russian bridgehead on the west bank of the Oskil near Kupiansk before 2027-01-01?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
RUSSIA–UKRAINE WAR · CLOSES 2027-01-01 · 136D LEFT
Will Ukraine experience a nationwide or multi-oblast sustained power outage attributed to Russian strikes lasting 48+ hours before 2027-01-01?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
RUSSIA–UKRAINE WAR · CLOSES 2027-01-01 · 136D LEFT
Will the United States formally announce a halt or indefinite suspension of new military aid packages to Ukraine before 2027-01-01?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
GLOBAL GRAIN SECURITY · CLOSES 2027-01-08 · 143D LEFT
Will the PortWatch Bosporus transit series close below 70 on any reported day before 2027-01-08?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
RED SEA MARITIME DISRUPTION · CLOSES 2027-01-08 · 143D LEFT
Will a commercial vessel sustain a confirmed piracy-attributed hit or successful boarding in the Gulf of Aden/Bab el-Mandeb before 2027-01-08?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
TAIWAN STRAIT PRESSURE · CLOSES 2027-01-08 · 143D LEFT
Will Taiwan's tracked PLA presence along the first island chain exceed 150 vessels in any single-day count before January 8, 2027?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
RED SEA MARITIME DISRUPTION · CLOSES 2027-01-11 · 146D LEFT
Will a commercial vessel sustain a confirmed hit from any hostile actor (Houthi or pirate) in the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, or Bab el-Mandeb before 2027-01-11?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
RED SEA MARITIME DISRUPTION · CLOSES 2027-01-13 · 148D LEFT
Will Bab el-Mandeb transits fall back below 50% of the 2024 baseline for any reported week before 2027-01-13?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
MEXICO CARTEL CONFLICT · CLOSES 2027-01-14 · 149D LEFT
Will the United States military conduct a strike inside Mexican territory against a cartel or FTO-designated group target before 2027-01-14?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
US MIDTERM INTEGRITY · CLOSES 2027-01-14 · 149D LEFT
Will a federal court order the reinstatement of at least one of the removed Democratic EAC commissioners (Thomas Hicks or Benjamin Hovland) before 2027-01-14?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
IRAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM · CLOSES 2027-01-31 · 166D LEFT
Will US or Israeli forces conduct a confirmed strike on the Pickaxe Mountain (Kuh-e Kolang Gaz La) nuclear site near Natanz on or before 2027-01-31?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
IRAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM · CLOSES 2027-01-31 · 166D LEFT
Will Iran's Assembly of Experts formally name a new Supreme Leader before 2027-01-31?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
RED SEA MARITIME DISRUPTION · CLOSES 2027-01-31 · 166D LEFT
Will a Saudi-linked or Saudi-bound commercial vessel sustain a confirmed Houthi strike or be forced into a documented mid-voyage reversal attributable to the announced Saudi blockade before 2027-01-31?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
RUSSIA–UKRAINE WAR · CLOSES 2027-02-01 · 167D LEFT
Will Ukraine experience a Russian-strike-attributed power outage across 3+ oblasts lasting 48+ consecutive hours before 2027-02-01?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
RUSSIA–UKRAINE WAR · CLOSES 2027-02-01 · 167D LEFT
Will DeepState-derived Russian-occupied area of Ukraine (ukr:occupied_km2) exceed 176,000 km² before 2027-02-01?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
US DOLLAR SECURITY · CLOSES 2027-03-31 · 225D LEFT
Will reported central-bank net gold purchases exceed 900 tonnes for calendar year 2026 per the World Gold Council?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
US DOLLAR SECURITY · CLOSES 2027-03-31 · 225D LEFT
Will central-bank net gold purchases for calendar year 2026 exceed 800 tonnes per the World Gold Council?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
RED SEA MARITIME DISRUPTION · CLOSES 2027-04-01 · 226D LEFT
Will a major container line publicly re-suspend or reroute Suez/Red Sea services away from Bab el-Mandeb before 2027-04-01?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
RED SEA MARITIME DISRUPTION · CLOSES 2027-04-01 · 226D LEFT
Will France, the United States, or an EU/multinational body formally announce the end or drawdown of its Red Sea/Bab el-Mandeb naval escort or protection mission before 2027-04-01?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
RUSSIA–UKRAINE WAR · CLOSES 2027-04-01 · 226D LEFT
Will EIA-reported Russian crude output (eia:crude_rus) fall below 10,000 kbd for any monthly reading before 2027-04-01?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
RUSSIA–UKRAINE WAR · CLOSES 2027-04-01 · 226D LEFT
Will the US and Russia jointly announce an agreed framework, roadmap, or ceasefire on the Ukraine war before 2027-04-01?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
RUSSIA–UKRAINE WAR · CLOSES 2027-04-01 · 226D LEFT
Will the US and Russia announce a formal bilateral framework or ceasefire on Ukraine before April 1, 2027?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
RUSSIA–UKRAINE WAR · CLOSES 2027-04-01 · 226D LEFT
Will Russia establish confirmed full control of Kupiansk (Kharkiv oblast) before 2027-04-01?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
TAIWAN STRAIT PRESSURE · CLOSES 2027-04-08 · 233D LEFT
Will a major container line publicly announce a standing (not one-off) diversion of Taiwan Strait traffic to east-of-Taiwan routing before April 8, 2027?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
CHINESE DISTANT-WATER FISHING · CLOSES 2027-06-15 · 301D LEFT
Will SW Atlantic effort (gfw:hours_sw_atlantic) exceed 1,000 hours on any reading during the Jan-May 2027 squid season?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
IRAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM · CLOSES 2027-06-30 · 316D LEFT
Will the IAEA confirm restored inspector access to both Fordow and Natanz on or before 30 June 2027?
—
NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
IRAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM · CLOSES 2027-06-30 · 316D LEFT
Will Iran publicly name a new Supreme Leader before 30 June 2027?
—
NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
GLOBAL GRAIN SECURITY · CLOSES 2027-06-30 · 316D LEFT
Will IPC/FEWS NET confirm Madagascar IPC Phase 4 population at or above 426,000 in any release before 2027-06-30?
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NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
IRAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM · CLOSES 2027-06-30 · 316D LEFT
Will Iran's parliament pass a measure to withdraw from the Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2027-06-30?
—
NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
RED SEA MARITIME DISRUPTION · CLOSES 2027-07-01 · 317D LEFT
Will a major marine war-risk authority remove the southern Red Sea or Bab el-Mandeb from its listed/high-risk area designation before 2027-07-01?
—
NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
RED SEA MARITIME DISRUPTION · CLOSES 2027-07-01 · 317D LEFT
Will IMF PortWatch Suez Canal transits reach 60% or more of the 2024 baseline on a 7-day trailing average on any date before 2027-07-01?
—
NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
RED SEA MARITIME DISRUPTION · CLOSES 2027-07-01 · 317D LEFT
Will IMF PortWatch Bab el-Mandeb transits remain below 85% of the 2024 baseline (7-day trailing average) for every reported day between now and 2027-07-01?
—
NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
RED SEA MARITIME DISRUPTION · CLOSES 2027-07-01 · 317D LEFT
Will a named marine war-risk authority (Lloyd's Market Association Joint War Committee or equivalent) publicly reduce or remove the additional premium for the southern Red Sea/Bab el-Mandeb before 2027-07-01?
—
NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
RED SEA MARITIME DISRUPTION · CLOSES 2027-07-01 · 317D LEFT
Will IMF PortWatch show Bab el-Mandeb Strait transit volume at or above 85% of its 2024 baseline for any reported week before 2027-07-01?
—
NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
RED SEA MARITIME DISRUPTION · CLOSES 2027-07-01 · 317D LEFT
Will PortWatch Bab el-Mandeb daily transits recover to at least 90% of the 2024 baseline on any reported date before 2027-07-01?
—
NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
RED SEA MARITIME DISRUPTION · CLOSES 2027-07-01 · 317D LEFT
Will PortWatch Bab el-Mandeb transits fall back below 55% of the 2024 baseline before 2027-07-01?
—
NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
RED SEA MARITIME DISRUPTION · CLOSES 2027-07-01 · 317D LEFT
Will at least three separate piracy attacks against merchant vessels in the Gulf of Aden / off Yemen be confirmed by UKMTO in any single calendar month before 2027-07-01?
—
NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
TAIWAN STRAIT PRESSURE · CLOSES 2027-07-01 · 317D LEFT
Will at least two major container lines maintain rerouting away from the Taiwan Strait (transiting east of Taiwan) for 90 consecutive days or more before July 1, 2027?
—
NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
RED SEA MARITIME DISRUPTION · CLOSES 2027-07-01 · 317D LEFT
Will the Lloyd's Market Association Joint War Committee (or an equivalent named insurer body) publicly reduce or remove the additional premium for the southern Red Sea/Bab el-Mandeb before 2027-07-01?
—
NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
TAIWAN STRAIT PRESSURE · CLOSES 2027-07-01 · 317D LEFT
Will median daily PLA ADIZ incursions remain at or above 20 for a rolling 30-day window at any point before July 1, 2027?
—
NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
GLOBAL GRAIN SECURITY · CLOSES 2027-07-01 · 317D LEFT
Will India lift its major rice export restrictions (removing the non-basmati white rice export ban) before 2027-07-01?
—
NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
RED SEA MARITIME DISRUPTION · CLOSES 2027-07-01 · 317D LEFT
Will PortWatch Bab el-Mandeb daily transit calls reach 90% or more of the 2024 baseline before 2027-07-01?
—
NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
CRITICAL MINERAL LEVERAGE · CLOSES 2027-07-07 · 323D LEFT
Will at least one non-China rare-earth separation or gallium-refining facility publicly confirm commercial-scale output before 2027-07-07?
—
NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
CRITICAL MINERAL LEVERAGE · CLOSES 2027-07-07 · 323D LEFT
Will a benchmark rare-earth oxide price index (NdPr) close at least 50% above its 2025 average for three consecutive months before 2027-07-07?
—
NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
CRITICAL MINERAL LEVERAGE · CLOSES 2027-07-07 · 323D LEFT
Will China's customs data show a year-on-year decline of 25% or more in exported volume of gallium or germanium for any two consecutive months before 2027-07-07?
—
NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
CRITICAL MINERAL LEVERAGE · CLOSES 2027-07-08 · 324D LEFT
Will a widely-tracked gallium or germanium price index close at least 50% above its 2025 average for three consecutive months before 2027-07-08?
—
NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
GLOBAL GRAIN SECURITY · CLOSES 2027-07-08 · 324D LEFT
Will at least two of the world's top-five wheat or rice exporters have an active staple export restriction in force as of 2027-07-08?
—
NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
IRAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM · CLOSES 2027-07-08 · 324D LEFT
Will the US or Israel conduct a new confirmed military strike inside Iranian territory between 2026-07-08 and 2026-07-08 2027?
—
NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
RUSSIA–UKRAINE WAR · CLOSES 2027-07-08 · 324D LEFT
Will a bilateral or multilateral ceasefire covering ground combat (not only energy infrastructure) take effect and hold for 30+ consecutive days before July 8, 2027?
—
NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
TAIWAN STRAIT PRESSURE · CLOSES 2027-07-08 · 324D LEFT
Will China's Coast Guard or PLA Navy board, inspect, or forcibly divert a commercial vessel in or near the Taiwan Strait before July 8, 2027?
—
NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
RUSSIA–UKRAINE WAR · CLOSES 2027-07-08 · 324D LEFT
Will Russia establish confirmed full control of Kupiansk (Kharkiv oblast) before July 8, 2027?
—
NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
CRITICAL MINERAL LEVERAGE · CLOSES 2027-07-08 · 324D LEFT
Will a non-China rare-earth separation or gallium refining facility publicly confirm sustained commercial-scale output before 2027-07-08?
—
NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
IRAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM · CLOSES 2027-07-08 · 324D LEFT
Will US or Israeli forces conduct a new confirmed military strike on Iranian territory between 8 July 2026 and 8 July 2027?
—
NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
GLOBAL GRAIN SECURITY · CLOSES 2027-07-08 · 324D LEFT
Will the FAO Cereal Price Index register a year-over-year increase of 10% or more in any monthly release before 2027-07-08?
—
NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
CRITICAL MINERAL LEVERAGE · CLOSES 2027-07-08 · 324D LEFT
Will China's monthly customs exports of any controlled mineral (gallium, germanium, antimony, or rare-earth magnets) fall to zero or near-zero for two consecutive months before 2027-07-08?
—
NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
RUSSIA–UKRAINE WAR · CLOSES 2027-07-08 · 324D LEFT
Will the United States formally suspend or fail to renew major military aid to Ukraine for a period of 60+ days before July 8, 2027?
—
NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
RUSSIA–UKRAINE WAR · CLOSES 2027-07-11 · 327D LEFT
Will the United States formally announce a suspension or termination of military aid to Ukraine before 2027-07-11?
—
NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
TAIWAN STRAIT PRESSURE · CLOSES 2027-07-11 · 327D LEFT
Will at least four distinct major container lines have standing routes east of Taiwan (avoiding the strait) for a continuous 60-day period before July 11, 2027?
—
NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
RUSSIA–UKRAINE WAR · CLOSES 2027-07-11 · 327D LEFT
Will a nationwide ceasefire or armistice covering the entire line of contact take effect for at least 30 consecutive days before 2027-07-11?
—
NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
TAIWAN STRAIT PRESSURE · CLOSES 2027-07-11 · 327D LEFT
Will the median daily PLA ADIZ incursion count exceed 26 sorties over any continuous 90-day window before July 11, 2027?
—
NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
RUSSIA–UKRAINE WAR · CLOSES 2027-07-13 · 329D LEFT
Will a formal Russia–Ukraine ceasefire or armistice covering the entire front take effect for at least 30 consecutive days before 2027-07-13?
—
NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
TAIWAN STRAIT PRESSURE · CLOSES 2027-07-13 · 329D LEFT
Will Taiwan's MND report a sustained 30-day window with median daily PLA ADIZ incursions above 30 before July 13, 2027?
—
NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
IRAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM · CLOSES 2027-07-13 · 329D LEFT
Will Iran's parliament pass legislation authorizing withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2027-07-13?
—
NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
TAIWAN STRAIT PRESSURE · CLOSES 2027-07-15 · 331D LEFT
Will the PRC announce a formal maritime inspection, customs, or quarantine regime applied to vessels bound to or from Taiwan before 2027-07-15?
—
NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
IRAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM · CLOSES 2027-07-15 · 331D LEFT
Will Iran's parliament formally pass legislation to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2027-07-15?
—
NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
TAIWAN STRAIT PRESSURE · CLOSES 2027-07-15 · 331D LEFT
Will Taiwan's MND report a single-day count above 150 Chinese military and Coast Guard vessels along the first island chain before 2027-07-15?
—
NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
TAIWAN STRAIT PRESSURE · CLOSES 2027-07-22 · 338D LEFT
Will Taiwan's MND report a 30-day rolling median of 26+ daily PLA ADIZ incursions at any point before 2027-07-22?
—
NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
IRAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM · CLOSES 2027-07-22 · 338D LEFT
Will a monitored US-Iran ceasefire (no confirmed US or Israeli strike on Iranian soil for 60+ consecutive days) hold at any point before 2027-07-22?
—
NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
IRAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM · CLOSES 2027-07-22 · 338D LEFT
Will the IAEA report that Iran has produced any weapons-grade (≥90% U-235) uranium on or before 2027-07-22?
—
NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
TAIWAN STRAIT PRESSURE · CLOSES 2027-07-29 · 345D LEFT
Will a US Navy carrier strike group or the US/an ally publicly announce a Taiwan Strait transit or a new Taiwan-directed force-posture change before 2027-07-29?
—
NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
IRAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM · CLOSES 2027-07-29 · 345D LEFT
Will Iran publicly install a named Supreme Leader or a formal governing leadership council on or before 2027-07-29?
—
NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
RUSSIA–UKRAINE WAR · CLOSES 2027-07-29 · 345D LEFT
Will DeepState-derived Russian-occupied area of Ukraine (ukr:occupied_km2) exceed 178,000 km² on any day before 2027-07-29?
—
NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
TAIWAN STRAIT PRESSURE · CLOSES 2027-07-29 · 345D LEFT
Will China Coast Guard establish a routine (recurring, monthly-or-more) patrol presence off Taiwan's east coast documented over a continuous 90-day period before 2027-07-29?
—
NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
CHINESE DISTANT-WATER FISHING · CLOSES 2027-07-31 · 347D LEFT
Will gfw:hours_w_africa exceed 800 hours on any reading before 2027-07-31?
—
NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
GLOBAL GRAIN SECURITY · CLOSES 2027-12-31 · 500D LEFT
Will the IMF PortWatch Bosporus transit series close below 70 on any reported day before 2028-01-01?
—
NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
GLOBAL GRAIN SECURITY · CLOSES 2027-12-31 · 500D LEFT
Will at least two of the world's top-five rice or wheat exporters have a new export ban or quota in force simultaneously at any point before 2027-12-31?
—
NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
GLOBAL GRAIN SECURITY · CLOSES 2027-12-31 · 500D LEFT
Will the CME rough rice front-month settle at least 15% above its 2026-06-30 level on any day before 2027-12-31?
—
NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
GLOBAL GRAIN SECURITY · CLOSES 2027-12-31 · 500D LEFT
Will the IMF PortWatch Bosporus transit series close below 70 on any reported day before 2027-12-31?
—
NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
GLOBAL GRAIN SECURITY · CLOSES 2027-12-31 · 500D LEFT
Will CBOT front-month wheat futures settle at least 20% above their 2026-06-30 level on any trading day before 2027-12-31?
—
NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
GLOBAL GRAIN SECURITY · CLOSES 2027-12-31 · 500D LEFT
Will a top-5 grain or rice exporter announce a new export ban or quota restriction on wheat, corn, or rice before 2028-01-01?
—
NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
IRAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM · CLOSES 2027-12-31 · 500D LEFT
Will a signed US-Iran nuclear agreement restoring IAEA on-site access be concluded before 2027-12-31?
—
NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
TAIWAN STRAIT PRESSURE · CLOSES 2028-01-01 · 501D LEFT
Will major insurers or a Taiwan Strait shipping index reflect a sustained rerouting such that measured monthly Strait container transits fall below 300 for two consecutive months before 2028-01-01?
—
NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
GLOBAL GRAIN SECURITY · CLOSES 2028-01-01 · 501D LEFT
Will the FAO Cereal Price Index register a year-over-year increase of 10% or more in three consecutive monthly releases before 2028-01-01?
—
NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
CRITICAL MINERAL LEVERAGE · CLOSES 2028-01-01 · 501D LEFT
Will USGS's next Mineral Commodity Summaries report US net-import reliance for rare earths below 50%?
—
NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
CRITICAL MINERAL LEVERAGE · CLOSES 2028-01-01 · 501D LEFT
Will a benchmark antimony or gallium price index rise and remain at least 40% above its 2026-07 level for 90+ consecutive days before 2028-01-01?
—
NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
CRITICAL MINERAL LEVERAGE · CLOSES 2028-01-01 · 501D LEFT
Will China's MOFCOM/customs authority announce a new or tightened export ban or licensing requirement on any of gallium, germanium, antimony, rare earths, graphite or tungsten before 2028-01-01?
—
NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
GLOBAL GRAIN SECURITY · CLOSES 2028-01-01 · 501D LEFT
Will the aggregate FEWS NET projected Phase 3+ population across Sudan, Nigeria, DRC, Ethiopia and Yemen exceed 85 million in any projection released before 2028-01-01?
—
NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
GLOBAL GRAIN SECURITY · CLOSES 2028-01-01 · 501D LEFT
Will a benchmark phosphate fertilizer price (DAP) rise 25% or more above its mid-2026 level on any monthly release before 2028-01-01?
—
NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
GLOBAL GRAIN SECURITY · CLOSES 2028-01-01 · 501D LEFT
Will the IMF PortWatch Bosporus transit series post a 4-week average below 50 on any release before 2028-01-01?
—
NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
RUSSIA–UKRAINE WAR · CLOSES 2028-01-31 · 531D LEFT
Will a Russia–Ukraine ceasefire covering the full line of contact take effect and hold for 30+ consecutive days before 2028-01-31?
—
NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
IRAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM · CLOSES 2028-02-28 · 559D LEFT
Will Iran publicly name a new Supreme Leader or formal successor leadership body on or before 28 February 2028?
—
NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
IRAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM · CLOSES 2028-02-28 · 559D LEFT
Will Iran announce a governing leadership council (rather than a single named Supreme Leader) as its post-Khamenei arrangement on or before 2028-02-28?
—
NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
US DOLLAR SECURITY · CLOSES 2028-03-31 · 591D LEFT
Will central-bank net gold purchases exceed 800 tonnes for calendar year 2027 per the World Gold Council?
—
NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
US DOLLAR SECURITY · CLOSES 2028-03-31 · 591D LEFT
Will central-bank net gold purchases exceed 900 tonnes in calendar year 2027 per the World Gold Council?
—
NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
US DOLLAR SECURITY · CLOSES 2028-06-30 · 682D LEFT
Will foreign official holdings of US Treasury securities fall below $9.0T for any reported month on or before 2028-06-30?
—
NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
CHINESE DISTANT-WATER FISHING · CLOSES 2028-06-30 · 682D LEFT
Will the WTO Agreement on Fisheries Subsidies enter into force by 2028-06-30?
—
NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
US DOLLAR SECURITY · CLOSES 2028-06-30 · 682D LEFT
Will the IMF COFER US dollar allocated reserve share fall below 55.00% for any reported quarter on or before 2028-06-30?
—
NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
US DOLLAR SECURITY · CLOSES 2028-06-30 · 682D LEFT
Will the IMF COFER US dollar reserve share fall below 55% for any reported quarter on or before 2028-06-30?
—
NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
IRAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM · CLOSES 2028-06-30 · 682D LEFT
Will the IAEA confirm Iran has produced or possesses weapons-grade (≥90% U-235) uranium on or before 2028-06-30?
—
NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
CHINESE DISTANT-WATER FISHING · CLOSES 2028-07-01 · 683D LEFT
Will there be a documented live-fire or fatal incident between a coastal-state maritime force and a Chinese distant-water vessel by 2028-07-01?
—
NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
TAIWAN STRAIT PRESSURE · CLOSES 2028-07-01 · 683D LEFT
Will the PRC conduct a de facto quarantine action — a declared closure/inspection zone or coast guard boarding of a Taiwan-bound commercial vessel — before July 1, 2028?
—
NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
CHINESE DISTANT-WATER FISHING · CLOSES 2028-07-01 · 683D LEFT
Will a coastal state or RFMO announce a mass detention (10+ vessels) or new binding transshipment/at-sea-controls measure targeting the Chinese DWF before 2028-07-01?
—
NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
CHINESE DISTANT-WATER FISHING · CLOSES 2028-07-01 · 683D LEFT
Will gfw:encounters (30d rolling) print below 1,000 on any reading before 2028-07-01?
—
NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
TAIWAN STRAIT PRESSURE · CLOSES 2028-07-11 · 693D LEFT
Will the PRC or China Coast Guard announce a formal customs-inspection, boarding, or closure regime applied to vessels transiting to or from Taiwan-held ports before July 11, 2028?
—
NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
TAIWAN STRAIT PRESSURE · CLOSES 2028-07-13 · 695D LEFT
Will the PLA conduct a declared multi-day (72+ hour) quarantine, inspection, or closure operation around a main island of Taiwan before July 13, 2028?
—
NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
TAIWAN STRAIT PRESSURE · CLOSES 2028-07-13 · 695D LEFT
Will a major international container line suspend direct Taiwan Strait transits for 7 or more consecutive days before July 13, 2028?
—
NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
TAIWAN STRAIT PRESSURE · CLOSES 2028-07-22 · 704D LEFT
Will China's Coast Guard, MSA, or State Council announce a boarding, customs-inspection, or closure regime targeting vessels bound to or from Taiwan before 2028-07-22?
—
NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
TAIWAN STRAIT PRESSURE · CLOSES 2028-07-22 · 704D LEFT
Will official or semi-official cross-Strait dialogue between PRC and Taiwan authorities resume before 2028-07-22?
—
NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
TAIWAN STRAIT PRESSURE · CLOSES 2028-07-29 · 711D LEFT
Will official or semi-official PRC-Taiwan cross-Strait dialogue resume before 2028-07-29?
—
NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
US DOLLAR SECURITY · CLOSES 2028-12-31 · 866D LEFT
Will the IMF COFER US dollar reserve share fall below 55% for any reported quarter on or before 2028-12-31?
—
NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
US DOLLAR SECURITY · CLOSES 2028-12-31 · 866D LEFT
Will foreign official holdings of US Treasury securities set a new all-time monthly high above $9.5T on or before 2028-12-31?
—
NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
US DOLLAR SECURITY · CLOSES 2028-12-31 · 866D LEFT
Will the IMF COFER US dollar reserve share fall below 55.0% for any reported quarter on or before 2028-12-31?
—
NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
US DOLLAR SECURITY · CLOSES 2029-03-31 · 956D LEFT
Will central-bank net gold purchases exceed 900 tonnes for calendar year 2028 per the World Gold Council?
—
NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
US DOLLAR SECURITY · CLOSES 2029-06-30 · 1047D LEFT
Will the IMF COFER US dollar reserve share fall below 54.00% for any reported quarter on or before 2029-06-30?
—
NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
US DOLLAR SECURITY · CLOSES 2029-12-31 · 1231D LEFT
Will the IMF COFER US dollar allocated reserve share fall below 54.00% for any reported quarter on or before 2029-12-31?
—
NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
US DOLLAR SECURITY · CLOSES 2029-12-31 · 1231D LEFT
Will foreign official holdings of US Treasury securities fall below $8.5T for any reported month on or before 2029-12-31?
—
NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
US DOLLAR SECURITY · CLOSES 2029-12-31 · 1231D LEFT
Will the IMF COFER US dollar reserve share fall below 54% for any reported quarter on or before 2029-12-31?
—
NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
US DOLLAR SECURITY · CLOSES 2030-12-31 · 1596D LEFT
Will the IMF COFER Chinese renminbi reserve share rise above 2.50% for any reported quarter on or before 2030-12-31?
—
NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
US DOLLAR SECURITY · CLOSES 2030-12-31 · 1596D LEFT
Will foreign official holdings of US Treasury securities fall below $9.0T for any reported month on or before 2030-12-31?
—
NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
US DOLLAR SECURITY · CLOSES 2031-06-30 · 1777D LEFT
Will the IMF COFER euro reserve share rise above 22.00% for any reported quarter on or before 2031-06-30?
—
NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
US DOLLAR SECURITY · CLOSES 2031-06-30 · 1777D LEFT
Will foreign official holdings of US Treasury securities fall below $8.5T for any reported month on or before 2031-06-30?
—
NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
RUSSIA–UKRAINE WAR
A negotiated energy-infrastructure ceasefire holds for 60+ days before Dec 31, 2026
—
NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
RUSSIA–UKRAINE WAR
Russia sustains 100+ long-range drone launches per night for any 7-day window before Sep 1, 2026
—
NO FORECASTS YET — BE FIRST
TAIWAN STRAIT PRESSURE
PRC declares a maritime exercise closure zone within 12 nm of a Taiwan-held island before Oct 1, 2026
84%
N=1 FORECASTERS
TAIWAN STRAIT PRESSURE
Median daily ADIZ incursions exceed 30 for any 7-day window before Sep 1, 2026
26%
N=1 FORECASTERS
LEADERBOARD · MEAN BRIER
Rankings appear once forecasters have 3+ resolved questions. Lower is better: 0 is clairvoyance, 0.25 is coin-flipping.