WEEKLY EDITION · 7 DAYS TO 2026-07-06
What moved this week
The measured week: 195 claims published, 5 scores moved. Built for cross-posting — copy it as markdown and paste it into your newsletter with the links intact. Daily cadence lives at /digest.
BIGGEST SCORE MOVES · 7D
Red Sea Maritime Disruption57 (-1 / 7D)Global Semiconductor Competition65 (-1 / 7D)Russia–Ukraine War80 (-1 / 7D)Taiwan Strait Pressure76 (-1 / 7D)Arctic Route Competition45 (+1 / 7D)PUBLISHED THIS WEEK · 195
PLA air and naval activity around Taiwan has intensified over the past two weeksTAIWAN STRAIT PRESSURE · VERIFIED · 0.93Ukrainian drones struck an oil terminal in St. Petersburg's Kirovsky district on Saturday, Russian officials said.RUSSIA–UKRAINE WAR · ASSESSED · 0.60A Russian missile and drone attack killed at least 30 people in Kyiv, the deadliest strike on the city in 2026.RUSSIA–UKRAINE WAR · ASSESSED · 0.60Mali's army reported that northern towns including Gao and Sévaré were targeted by rebels on July 4, 2026.SAHEL SECURITY CASCADE · ASSESSED · 0.60Azawad Liberation Front spokesperson announced an offensive targeting the northern town of Anefis.SAHEL SECURITY CASCADE · ASSESSED · 0.60Belgorod was left almost completely without power on Saturday due to overnight attacks, local media reported.RUSSIA–UKRAINE WAR · ASSESSED · 0.50A Russian attack struck residential buildings in Zaporizhzhia, wounding eight people including two children.RUSSIA–UKRAINE WAR · ASSESSED · 0.60Infineon opened its €5 billion (~$5.7 billion) Dresden 'smart power fab' Module 4 on July 2, 2026, three months ahead of schedule.GLOBAL SEMICONDUCTOR COMPETITION · ASSESSED · 0.75Infineon's Dresden Module 4 will become its largest facility for power semiconductors, outscaling comparable sites in Asia and the U.S.GLOBAL SEMICONDUCTOR COMPETITION · ASSESSED · 0.70Infineon broke ground on the Dresden 300-mm fab in May 2023, reaching formal opening in July 2026.GLOBAL SEMICONDUCTOR COMPETITION · ASSESSED · 0.65German Chancellor Friedrich Merz addressed the Dresden opening by video, praising the investment enabling cutting-edge semiconductor production in Germany.GLOBAL SEMICONDUCTOR COMPETITION · ASSESSED · 0.60SK hynix shipped 12-layer HBM4E memory samples to major customers, processing up to 16 Gbps per pin and 20% more power efficient.GLOBAL SEMICONDUCTOR COMPETITION · ASSESSED · 0.60Zelenskiy confirmed Ukrainian strikes on port oil infrastructure and on Kronstadt, described as a military target over 850km from Ukraine.RUSSIA–UKRAINE WAR · ASSESSED · 0.80SK hynix will invest KRW 600 trillion (~$390 billion) in the Yongin cluster, completing a fourth fab by 2033, 12 years early.GLOBAL SEMICONDUCTOR COMPETITION · ASSESSED · 0.60South Korea unveiled an AI-and-semiconductor investment drive; Samsung plans $260B on Gwangju fabs and $36B on HBM fabs in Cheonan and Onyang.GLOBAL SEMICONDUCTOR COMPETITION · ASSESSED · 0.60Russian attack struck residential buildings in Zaporizhzhia region, wounding eight including two children, local authorities said July 4.RUSSIA–UKRAINE WAR · ASSESSED · 0.80Belgorod was left almost completely without power on July 4 due to overnight Ukrainian drone attacks, local media reported.RUSSIA–UKRAINE WAR · ASSESSED · 0.80After recent attacks in Izium, electricity was lost for two or three days, disabling gas boilers and heating.RUSSIA–UKRAINE WAR · ASSESSED · 0.50Ukraine struck St Petersburg's oil terminal and Leningrad region's Vysotsk port in a large-scale overnight drone attack on 2026-07-04.RUSSIA–UKRAINE WAR · ASSESSED · 0.62WHO verified 154 attacks on health care in Ukraine between 1 April and 30 June 2026.RUSSIA–UKRAINE WAR · VERIFIED · 0.85Izium, in Ukraine's Kharkiv region, lies approximately 20km from active hostilities, with the frontline 28km away.RUSSIA–UKRAINE WAR · ASSESSED · 0.60Spain coordinates Europe's €400 million PIXEurope initiative to scale photonics research into semiconductor manufacturing capacity.GLOBAL SEMICONDUCTOR COMPETITION · ASSESSED · 0.60WHO recorded 300 verified attacks on health care, 15 deaths and 116 injuries in Ukraine in first half of 2026.RUSSIA–UKRAINE WAR · VERIFIED · 0.85Wooptix, a Canary Islands startup, launched Phemet, an automated wafer-shape metrology tool for 300-mm wafers, in November 2025.GLOBAL SEMICONDUCTOR COMPETITION · ASSESSED · 0.60Around 80% of infrastructure in Izium has been damaged during the war.RUSSIA–UKRAINE WAR · ASSESSED · 0.55The July 2, 2026 Kyiv strike hit an ambulance station, injuring six personnel: three paramedics and three driver-technicians.RUSSIA–UKRAINE WAR · ASSESSED · 0.62Russia launched 86 Shahed-type attack UAVs and decoy drones, one Iskander-M ballistic missile, and one guided air missile against Ukraine overnight July 4.RUSSIA–UKRAINE WAR · ASSESSED · 0.62Russia has received drones from Iran for use in its war in Ukraine, per NPR reporting.RUSSIA–UKRAINE WAR · ASSESSED · 0.62Qilimanjaro's analog quantum system joined the digital quantum computer at Barcelona Supercomputing Center on May 28.GLOBAL SEMICONDUCTOR COMPETITION · ASSESSED · 0.55During the July 2, 2026 Kyiv attack, 110 ambulance crews reportedly worked simultaneously as the healthcare system was overwhelmed.RUSSIA–UKRAINE WAR · ASSESSED · 0.50Two missiles and 17 attack UAVs struck 16 locations across Ukraine overnight July 4, with debris falling at five locations.RUSSIA–UKRAINE WAR · ASSESSED · 0.60Apple seeks to buy memory chips from China's CXMT, a US-blacklisted firm, amid a memory crunch, per FT.GLOBAL SEMICONDUCTOR COMPETITION · ASSESSED · 0.60Infineon COO Gorski said the fully loaded fab will generate about €5 billion (~$5.7 billion) in additional revenue.GLOBAL SEMICONDUCTOR COMPETITION · ASSESSED · 0.60Russian air defences shot down 72 Ukrainian drones over St. Petersburg and surrounding region, Gov. Beglov said.RUSSIA–UKRAINE WAR · ASSESSED · 0.58The July 2, 2026 Kyiv attack damaged a hotel and residential buildings, trapping sleeping residents under rubble.RUSSIA–UKRAINE WAR · ASSESSED · 0.60Ukrainian air defense shot down or suppressed 69 of 86 enemy drones overnight July 4, per the Ukrainian Air Force.RUSSIA–UKRAINE WAR · ASSESSED · 0.62Ukraine accounted for roughly 40% of all documented attacks on health care globally in H1 2026, per WHO.RUSSIA–UKRAINE WAR · VERIFIED · 0.82Ukrainian forces struck a military target on Kronstadt island off St. Petersburg, Zelenskyy said.RUSSIA–UKRAINE WAR · ASSESSED · 0.80SK hynix announced a ~$713 billion (KRW 1,100 trillion) mid- to long-term plan to expand semiconductor manufacturing capacity in South Korea.GLOBAL SEMICONDUCTOR COMPETITION · ASSESSED · 0.72SK hynix outlined ~$714B mid-to-long-term investment, including ~$386B for its Yongin cluster and $260B for a new southwestern cluster.GLOBAL SEMICONDUCTOR COMPETITION · ASSESSED · 0.55The U.S. lifted export controls on Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 models after added security measures.GLOBAL SEMICONDUCTOR COMPETITION · ASSESSED · 0.40Bridges leading to Izium face constant attacks aimed at disrupting logistical routes in the area.RUSSIA–UKRAINE WAR · ASSESSED · 0.50SK hynix plans a Nasdaq listing on July 10 aiming to raise ~$29 billion (KRW 45.45 trillion) to fund fab expansion.GLOBAL SEMICONDUCTOR COMPETITION · ASSESSED · 0.45Leningrad governor Drozdenko said 72 drones were shot down over the region overnight.RUSSIA–UKRAINE WAR · ASSESSED · 0.55Junta governments of Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso turned from Western allies to Russia for counterinsurgency support.SAHEL SECURITY CASCADE · ASSESSED · 0.40Russia has received drones from Iran for use in its war against Ukraine, per NPR reporting.RUSSIA–UKRAINE WAR · ASSESSED · 0.60Infineon opened its $5.7B Smart Power Fab in Dresden, the world's largest intelligent-power-semiconductor factory, months ahead of schedule.GLOBAL SEMICONDUCTOR COMPETITION · ASSESSED · 0.70A US-Iran memorandum of understanding was signed on 17 June 2026, reportedly helping decrease regional tensions.IRAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM · ASSESSED · 0.50At Gao on July 4, 2026, one Malian soldier was killed and four wounded, six attackers killed and one vehicle destroyed.SAHEL SECURITY CASCADE · ASSESSED · 0.60NRC said Central Sahel faces worsening displacement, protection conditions and weakening services as humanitarian and development financing decline.SAHEL SECURITY CASCADE · ASSESSED · 0.55Videos appear to show large smoke plumes rising from an oil facility in St. Petersburg's port after the strike.RUSSIA–UKRAINE WAR · ASSESSED · 0.50Crimean authorities declared a state of emergency over fuel shortages and imposed curfews amid power outages caused by Ukrainian strikes.RUSSIA–UKRAINE WAR · ASSESSED · 0.55Malian army said attacks hit military positions in Aguelhok, Anefis, Gao, Sévaré and Kenioroba on July 4, 2026, and were repelled.SAHEL SECURITY CASCADE · ASSESSED · 0.65In late April 2026, a coordinated FLA and JNIM attack killed Mali's defense minister and captured several northern towns.SAHEL SECURITY CASCADE · ASSESSED · 0.62FLA spokesperson said separatists were targeting the northern Malian town of Anefis in a new offensive.SAHEL SECURITY CASCADE · ASSESSED · 0.75Malian army reported several northern towns, including Gao and Sévaré, targeted by rebel attacks on Saturday.SAHEL SECURITY CASCADE · ASSESSED · 0.75Russian forces struck Kyiv overnight July 2, 2026, killing at least 30 people and wounding at least 86, per official reports.RUSSIA–UKRAINE WAR · ASSESSED · 0.62Russia claimed full control of Kostyantynivka; Zelenskyy denied the city had been captured.RUSSIA–UKRAINE WAR · ASSESSED · 0.75Malian Defense Minister Sadio Camara was killed in April in an attack on his residence in Kati, near Bamako.SAHEL SECURITY CASCADE · ASSESSED · 0.55CG Semi Sanand plant to produce 200 million chips annually, scaling to 500 million per year.GLOBAL SEMICONDUCTOR COMPETITION · ASSESSED · 0.60Zelensky in February 2026 acknowledged 55,000 Ukrainian military deaths, plus many missing.RUSSIA–UKRAINE WAR · ASSESSED · 0.65Malian army said it neutralized over 60 attackers in strikes in the Faya Classified Forest, about 40 km from Bamako, last month.SAHEL SECURITY CASCADE · ASSESSED · 0.60US President Trump said Iran remains eager to reach a peace deal, in a Mount Rushmore speech on 3 July 2026.IRAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM · ASSESSED · 0.55Trump said Iran remains eager to reach a peace deal, in a speech at Mount Rushmore on 3 July 2026.IRAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM · ASSESSED · 0.55Micron's ATMP facility commissioned February 2026 and Kaynes Semicon OSAT plant March 2026 in Sanand.GLOBAL SEMICONDUCTOR COMPETITION · ASSESSED · 0.60NRC identified Niger, Burkina Faso and Mali among the five least funded humanitarian responses in 2026.SAHEL SECURITY CASCADE · ASSESSED · 0.60BBC has verified 230,407 Russian soldier and officer deaths in Ukraine via cemeteries, memorials, registers and obituaries.RUSSIA–UKRAINE WAR · ASSESSED · 0.70Taiwan's opposition-dominated legislature in May approved two-thirds of a proposed $40 billion extra defense package requested by Lai Ching-te.TAIWAN STRAIT PRESSURE · ASSESSED · 0.55CG Semi project, approved February 2024, involved Rs 7,600 crore investment with Japan's Renesas and Thailand's Stars Microelectronics.GLOBAL SEMICONDUCTOR COMPETITION · ASSESSED · 0.70India's PM Modi inaugurated commercial semiconductor production at CG Semi's OSAT facility in Sanand, Gujarat.GLOBAL SEMICONDUCTOR COMPETITION · ASSESSED · 0.80A Tuareg-led rebel group attacked a northern Mali town hosting government and Russian paramilitary forces.SAHEL SECURITY CASCADE · ASSESSED · 0.55Ukrainian drone debris fell near the port of Vysotsk near the Finnish border, Leningrad governor said.RUSSIA–UKRAINE WAR · ASSESSED · 0.60GCHQ said in May 2026 that Russian war deaths numbered almost 500,000.RUSSIA–UKRAINE WAR · ASSESSED · 0.65Residents of two other areas in northern and central Mali reported hearing gunfire and explosions Saturday.SAHEL SECURITY CASCADE · ASSESSED · 0.40Gujarat secured six semiconductor projects representing USD 14.7 billion in investment.GLOBAL SEMICONDUCTOR COMPETITION · ASSESSED · 0.60At least 920 Russian drone operators have been killed since the February 2022 full-scale invasion, per BBC analysis.RUSSIA–UKRAINE WAR · ASSESSED · 0.63Chinese FM Wang Yi urged US Secretary Marco Rubio to handle Taiwan issues with "utmost caution" in a June 30 call.TAIWAN STRAIT PRESSURE · ASSESSED · 0.60Trump said Iran remains eager to reach a peace deal, in a Mount Rushmore speech on 3 July 2026.IRAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM · ASSESSED · 0.65Houthi rebels entered the Iran war in March 2026, firing missiles at Israel as a key Tehran ally.RED SEA MARITIME DISRUPTION · ASSESSED · 0.50BBC found recruitment activity in at least 95 Russian universities and colleges by late February 2026; Groza cited nearly 270.RUSSIA–UKRAINE WAR · ASSESSED · 0.60Russia's defense ministry said nearly 500 long-range drones were involved in Ukraine's overnight attack; Moscow's mayor said 200 targeted the capital.RUSSIA–UKRAINE WAR · ASSESSED · 0.55The DRC Ebola outbreak has claimed at least 452 lives, according to figures as of 3 July 2026.EBOLA OUTBREAK TRACKING · ASSESSED · 0.60Texas DSHS confirmed no human cases of New World screwworm in Texas.NEW WORLD SCREWWORM · ASSESSED · 0.60Britain detained a sanctioned oil tanker believed linked to Russia's shadow fleet.RUSSIA–UKRAINE WAR · ASSESSED · 0.60USDA awarded the University of Arizona a $3.74 million Grand Challenge grant to strengthen state preparedness for New World screwworm.NEW WORLD SCREWWORM · VERIFIED · 0.65A humanitarian doctor tested positive for Ebola in France, the first case on French territory, after flying from DRC on 23 June 2026.EBOLA OUTBREAK TRACKING · ASSESSED · 0.62Erdogan warned the Israeli government must not be allowed to renew war across the region, speaking in Istanbul.GAZA WAR · ASSESSED · 0.60India's electronics manufacturing sector has grown to ₹13 lakh crore, employing 25 lakh people.GLOBAL SEMICONDUCTOR COMPETITION · ASSESSED · 0.50University of Arizona project will validate a PCR-based diagnostic tool to expand New World screwworm testing capacity beyond morphological identification.NEW WORLD SCREWWORM · VERIFIED · 0.62Project includes economic-impact assessment and benefit-cost analysis of response strategies, including a proposed Arizona-based sterile fly distribution facility.NEW WORLD SCREWWORM · VERIFIED · 0.62By end of June 2026, USDA tallied 20 active and seven inactive NWS cases, all but one in south Texas.NEW WORLD SCREWWORM · ASSESSED · 0.60USDA dashboard shows most U.S. NWS cases in cattle, plus sheep, three goats, and a dog in New Mexico.NEW WORLD SCREWWORM · ASSESSED · 0.58USDA reports no wild NWS detections across the region's 6,000 fly traps.NEW WORLD SCREWWORM · ASSESSED · 0.58Chips from the Sanand plant will be exported to Japan, the United States and Europe.GLOBAL SEMICONDUCTOR COMPETITION · ASSESSED · 0.50The French Ebola patient recovered after two negative PCR tests and was discharged, French Health Minister Stéphanie Rist said.EBOLA OUTBREAK TRACKING · ASSESSED · 0.62Five other passengers on the doctor's Air France flight were identified as possible contacts and placed in isolation.EBOLA OUTBREAK TRACKING · ASSESSED · 0.58An Ebola case was recently confirmed in Kisangani, a major DRC city 600 km from the outbreak epicentre.EBOLA OUTBREAK TRACKING · ASSESSED · 0.55Russian forces struck an oil depot near Vysokogornoye in Zaporizhia region using Geran-4 and Gerber drones, per Russian MoD.RUSSIA–UKRAINE WAR · ASSESSED · 0.68Minister Vaishnaw said chips from the Sanand facility will be exported to Japan, the United States and Europe.GLOBAL SEMICONDUCTOR COMPETITION · ASSESSED · 0.60North Korea test-fired the destroyer Kang Kon's main gun and automatic cannons during July 3 weapons trials, per KCNA.KOREAN PENINSULA SIGNALING · ASSESSED · 0.58Niger officially submitted its request to withdraw from the International Criminal Court in June 2026, nine months after announcing intent.SAHEL SECURITY CASCADE · ASSESSED · 0.55McEntee stated Gulf partners were directly impacted by conflict and showed restraint in the face of Iranian attacks.IRAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM · ASSESSED · 0.55The US placed itself on alert over the DRC Ebola outbreak, implementing stepped-up surveillance and entry restrictions on airline travelers.EBOLA OUTBREAK TRACKING · ASSESSED · 0.55ICC's Assembly of States Parties Presidency urged Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger to remain within the Rome Statute framework.SAHEL SECURITY CASCADE · ASSESSED · 0.55Commercial production commenced at Sanand's third semiconductor plant 27 months after the March 2024 groundbreaking.GLOBAL SEMICONDUCTOR COMPETITION · ASSESSED · 0.60Israel and Lebanon signed a US-backed framework deal intended to permanently end the conflict with Hezbollah in southern Lebanon.GAZA WAR · ASSESSED · 0.60US New World screwworm cases reached 31, with 30 in Texas and one domestic animal case in Lea County, New Mexico.NEW WORLD SCREWWORM · ASSESSED · 0.65At full capacity, both CG Semi plants will manufacture 5 billion chips annually, or 1.5 crore chips per day.GLOBAL SEMICONDUCTOR COMPETITION · ASSESSED · 0.65During the Iran war, 13 India-flagged vessels with about 550 Indian sailors were stuck in the Strait of Hormuz for over 100 days.IRAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM · ASSESSED · 0.50The US State Department said on May 23 it continues moving aggressively to contain the Ebola outbreak at its source.EBOLA OUTBREAK TRACKING · ASSESSED · 0.60Kim Jong Un ordered officials to complete the Kang Kon's trials and place the destroyer in active duty within two months.KOREAN PENINSULA SIGNALING · ASSESSED · 0.70USDA APHIS lists 31 confirmed New World screwworm cases in the US, with 21 active and 9 shifted to inactive status.NEW WORLD SCREWWORM · ASSESSED · 0.65The ICC acknowledged receiving Niger's instrument of withdrawal on 18 June 2026.SAHEL SECURITY CASCADE · ASSESSED · 0.55TAHC established Infested Zone 07.B, expanding livestock movement restrictions across Crockett, Schleicher, Sutton, Terrell and Val Verde counties.NEW WORLD SCREWWORM · ASSESSED · 0.60An Israeli Apache helicopter fired five missiles towards the town of Majdal Zoun in southern Lebanon.GAZA WAR · ASSESSED · 0.60North Korea commissioned its first 5,000-ton destroyer, the Choe Hyon, in late June 2026.KOREAN PENINSULA SIGNALING · ASSESSED · 0.72More than 18,000 Indian seafarers across the Gulf region were caught up in uncertainty during the Iran war.IRAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM · ASSESSED · 0.45Texas Animal Health Commission has imposed quarantines in parts of multiple counties, barring warm-blooded animal movement without authorization and inspection.NEW WORLD SCREWWORM · ASSESSED · 0.60In September 2025 Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso issued a joint statement refusing to recognize the ICC's authority.SAHEL SECURITY CASCADE · ASSESSED · 0.55Texas established Infested Zone 10 covering parts of Jim Hogg, Starr, and Zapata counties after a bovine tested positive in Jim Hogg County.NEW WORLD SCREWWORM · ASSESSED · 0.60Trump pressed Israel to reduce military operations in Lebanon and support an initial withdrawal from southern Lebanon.GAZA WAR · ASSESSED · 0.55Turkey has condemned Israeli operations in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria, President Erdogan said in Istanbul.GAZA WAR · ASSESSED · 0.72McEntee said she hopes the recent US-Iran ceasefire leads to a lasting agreement addressing Iran's nuclear programme and Strait of Hormuz access.IRAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM · ASSESSED · 0.60The International Rescue Committee curtailed front-line health, surveillance, and outbreak-preparedness programs in DRC amid the Ebola outbreak after USAID funding was cut.EBOLA OUTBREAK TRACKING · ASSESSED · 0.58Following creation of the Alliance of Sahel States, the three countries propose a regional Sahel Criminal Court for Human Rights.SAHEL SECURITY CASCADE · ASSESSED · 0.50A June 30 dog screwworm case was confirmed in Pecos County, Texas, and already moved to inactive status.NEW WORLD SCREWWORM · ASSESSED · 0.60A June 29 cattle screwworm case was confirmed in Uvalde County, Texas, a new county bordering initial Zavala County confirmations.NEW WORLD SCREWWORM · ASSESSED · 0.60Lebanese Ministry of Public Health reported death toll since March 2 reached 4,303 killed and 12,202 wounded.GAZA WAR · ASSESSED · 0.55Irish Foreign Minister Helen McEntee traveled to Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE for meetings addressing the Strait of Hormuz crisis.IRAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM · ASSESSED · 0.60Hezbollah rejected the US-backed deal, which sets no timetable for Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon.GAZA WAR · ASSESSED · 0.60A New World screwworm case was confirmed in a bovine in Crockett County, Texas, bypassing active containment barriers.NEW WORLD SCREWWORM · ASSESSED · 0.60Trump said Netanyahu requested a White House meeting, possibly next week, after Trump's return from the NATO summit.GAZA WAR · ASSESSED · 0.60Trump criticized Netanyahu in a phone call last month over Israel's military operations in Lebanon.GAZA WAR · ASSESSED · 0.55An Israeli strike on the village of al-Mansouri in southern Lebanon injured one person.GAZA WAR · ASSESSED · 0.60Malian army said 20 attackers riding motorcycles or in armed vehicles were killed at Sévaré on July 4, 2026.SAHEL SECURITY CASCADE · ASSESSED · 0.72Russia's military claimed capture of Kostiantynivka in Donetsk; Ukraine's general staff denied the town had fallen.RUSSIA–UKRAINE WAR · ASSESSED · 0.80A NATO summit of all 32 member states is scheduled for July 7-8, 2026 in Ankara, Turkey.RUSSIA–UKRAINE WAR · ASSESSED · 0.60Russian air defenses shot down 72 Ukrainian drones across St. Petersburg and surrounding region, Gov. Alexander Beglov said.RUSSIA–UKRAINE WAR · ASSESSED · 0.72A conflict between the United States and Iran caused restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting India's oil imports.IRAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM · ASSESSED · 0.50Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and family members were killed on 28 February 2026 during US-Israeli strikes on Iran.IRAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM · ASSESSED · 0.40USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins says USDA has invested $1.3 billion and expanded its screwworm workforce.NEW WORLD SCREWWORM · ASSESSED · 0.50Houthi military spokesman warned on July 3 the group would target Saudi airports and vital interests on land and sea if Riyadh violated Yemeni airspace.RED SEA MARITIME DISRUPTION · ASSESSED · 0.63North Korea test-fired a strategic nuclear-capable cruise missile, supervised by Kim Jong Un, on July 3, per state media (KCNA).KOREAN PENINSULA SIGNALING · ASSESSED · 0.70Ukrainian drone attack struck an oil terminal in St. Petersburg's Kirovsky district on July 4, Russian officials said.RUSSIA–UKRAINE WAR · ASSESSED · 0.80No group immediately claimed responsibility for the cargo ship attack off Hodeida.RED SEA MARITIME DISRUPTION · ASSESSED · 0.55Zelenskyy confirmed he spoke by phone with Trump on July 5, 2026, discussing the frontline situation and diplomatic efforts.RUSSIA–UKRAINE WAR · ASSESSED · 0.55A UAV strike on Bohodukhiv, northwest of Kharkiv, killed two men and damaged a supermarket and furniture store on July 5.RUSSIA–UKRAINE WAR · ASSESSED · 0.60Taiwan tracked a record of more than 110 Chinese military and Coast Guard ships along the first island chain as of Friday.TAIWAN STRAIT PRESSURE · ASSESSED · 0.60US and Iranian delegations met in Qatar last week for indirect negotiations following recent military exchanges.GAZA WAR · ASSESSED · 0.55Trump and Putin held an approximately 90-minute phone call on July 5, 2026 discussing the war in Ukraine.RUSSIA–UKRAINE WAR · ASSESSED · 0.58MV Golden Arsenal, a St. Vincent and the Grenadines-flagged bulk carrier, reported an attempted pirate attack ~300 nautical miles east-northeast of Djibouti on 1 July 2026.RED SEA MARITIME DISRUPTION · ASSESSED · 0.60China's Coast Guard launched a new patrol off Taiwan's east coast on Saturday, drawing objection from Taipei.TAIWAN STRAIT PRESSURE · ASSESSED · 0.60A cargo vessel was attacked by unknown armed assailants about 30 nautical miles southwest of Hodeidah, Yemen, on 5 July 2026, per UKMTO.RED SEA MARITIME DISRUPTION · ASSESSED · 0.72Uganda contained its Ebola outbreak nearly two months after declaration, per Ministry of Health permanent secretary Diana Atwine.EBOLA OUTBREAK TRACKING · ASSESSED · 0.60Brussels proposed a six-month freeze on the current EU oil price cap as part of the 21st sanctions package.RUSSIA–UKRAINE WAR · ASSESSED · 0.55Russian troops hit a Sumy fuel station on the night of July 4, sparking a fire that wounded three women.RUSSIA–UKRAINE WAR · ASSESSED · 0.65EU's Russian oil price cap set to rise from $44 to over $60 per barrel on July 15, above Urals crude's ~$56 price.RUSSIA–UKRAINE WAR · ASSESSED · 0.55Uganda dispatched medical personnel, two mobile laboratories and logistical support to DRC to bolster its Ebola response.EBOLA OUTBREAK TRACKING · ASSESSED · 0.60EU foreign ministers scheduled to meet July 13, when diplomats expect formal approval of the 21st sanctions package.RUSSIA–UKRAINE WAR · ASSESSED · 0.55Dmitry Medvedev stated Russia intends to establish a 'security zone' across Ukraine's Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv regions.RUSSIA–UKRAINE WAR · ASSESSED · 0.55Eight Russian oil refineries were attacked over the past month, with 60+ storage tanks destroyed or critically damaged.RUSSIA–UKRAINE WAR · ASSESSED · 0.55Putin and Trump held a nearly 90-minute call on July 4, their fourth this year, discussing ending the Ukraine war.RUSSIA–UKRAINE WAR · ASSESSED · 0.60USS Abraham Lincoln deployed to US CENTCOM area of responsibility, in region since November 21, 2025.RED SEA MARITIME DISRUPTION · ASSESSED · 0.60Russian drone assault on Zaporizhzhia wounded three civilians and damaged a retail store and local enterprise on July 5.RUSSIA–UKRAINE WAR · ASSESSED · 0.60Indian Navy frigate INS Trikand responded to the MV Golden Arsenal piracy attempt and arrived in the vicinity early on 2 July 2026.RED SEA MARITIME DISRUPTION · ASSESSED · 0.60US-Iran talks remain divided over the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon.GAZA WAR · ASSESSED · 0.50A Russian FAB-250 guided bomb struck a Kramatorsk supermarket July 4, wounding five and igniting a 1,300-square-meter fire.RUSSIA–UKRAINE WAR · ASSESSED · 0.72Oluyede said regional instability continues to compound Nigeria's domestic security concerns, speaking at the Nigerian Army Day Celebration 2026 lecture in Port Harcourt.SAHEL SECURITY CASCADE · ASSESSED · 0.60Erdogan warned Israel must not undermine the US-Iran memorandum of understanding, speaking alongside Pakistani PM Shehbaz Sharif in Istanbul.GAZA WAR · ASSESSED · 0.60Taiwan's defence ministry resumed "anti-communist" patriotic classes for military academy graduates, citing rising military and infiltration threats from China.TAIWAN STRAIT PRESSURE · ASSESSED · 0.60Russia probed European defenses with drone flights near military bases across multiple countries, per a study released July 2, 2026.RUSSIA–UKRAINE WAR · ASSESSED · 0.55A Gaza Strip Administration Committee headed by Ali Shaat, established about six months ago, is expected to replace Hamas' governing structure with technocrats.GAZA WAR · ASSESSED · 0.50Uganda recorded 20 cumulative confirmed Ebola cases as of July 5, 2026: 15 imported from DRC and five locally transmitted.EBOLA OUTBREAK TRACKING · ASSESSED · 0.62Russian missile strike on Izyum, Kharkiv region, killed one civilian, wounded three and destroyed a gas station on July 5.RUSSIA–UKRAINE WAR · ASSESSED · 0.72Ukrainian drones targeted fuel and power facilities in Russian-annexed Crimea.RUSSIA–UKRAINE WAR · ASSESSED · 0.50Macron confirmed French mine countermeasure and escort vessels will remain in the region after carrier departure.RED SEA MARITIME DISRUPTION · ASSESSED · 0.60Of Uganda's 20 confirmed cases, 16 patients recovered, two remain hospitalized and two died.EBOLA OUTBREAK TRACKING · ASSESSED · 0.62MV Golden Arsenal sustained damage to its bridge superstructure and adjoining compartments; all 21 crew were confirmed safe.RED SEA MARITIME DISRUPTION · ASSESSED · 0.60NATO allies committed at last year's summit to invest as much as the US in defense as a share of GDP.RUSSIA–UKRAINE WAR · ASSESSED · 0.55Zelensky spoke with Trump, describing the conversation as very good and expressing optimism about ending the war.RUSSIA–UKRAINE WAR · ASSESSED · 0.60Trump held a nearly 90-minute phone call with Putin on July 4, offering to help resolve the Ukraine war.RUSSIA–UKRAINE WAR · ASSESSED · 0.60India arranged DAP and NPK fertilizer imports via the Red Sea from Russia, Morocco, Egypt, US, Jordan, South Korea, Tunisia and Saudi Arabia during the crisis.RED SEA MARITIME DISRUPTION · ASSESSED · 0.55Israeli authorities reportedly refused to allow Gaza Strip Administration Committee members to enter Gaza to begin work.GAZA WAR · ASSESSED · 0.45Another round of Palestinian faction talks expected in Cairo to resolve disagreements over implementing the ceasefire's second phase.GAZA WAR · ASSESSED · 0.50In recent Turkey talks, Hamas demanded gradual disarmament with weapons transferred to a Palestinian body and full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza.GAZA WAR · ASSESSED · 0.50The Pentagon announced scaling back the troops, warships, aircraft and drones it would provide if a NATO ally came under attack.RUSSIA–UKRAINE WAR · ASSESSED · 0.60French carrier FS Charles de Gaulle to return to Toulon after two months operating near the Strait of Hormuz protecting shipping lanes.RED SEA MARITIME DISRUPTION · ASSESSED · 0.60Uganda's Ebola outbreak was declared on May 15, 2026, following importation of cases from DRC.EBOLA OUTBREAK TRACKING · ASSESSED · 0.60Suspected pirates attacked a vessel 76 nautical miles south of Balhaf, Yemen, on 1 July, causing minor bridge damage.RED SEA MARITIME DISRUPTION · ASSESSED · 0.50First official New World Screwworm detection in the U.S. occurred in Zavala County, Texas on June 3, 2026.NEW WORLD SCREWWORM · ASSESSED · 0.55Xi Jinping and Donald Trump met in Beijing in mid-May, with Xi warning mishandling Taiwan could push relations into a dangerous place.TAIWAN STRAIT PRESSURE · ASSESSED · 0.45AIT director Raymond Greene urged turning Taiwan into a "hornet's nest" of air, surface and subsurface drones as deterrence against Beijing.TAIWAN STRAIT PRESSURE · ASSESSED · 0.45Russian media reported explosions and fires at the St Petersburg oil terminal around 06:30 local time on July 4.RUSSIA–UKRAINE WAR · ASSESSED · 0.50Russian MoD announced a drone strike on an oil depot near Vysokogornoye in Zaporizhia region using Geran-4 and Gerber UAVs.RUSSIA–UKRAINE WAR · ASSESSED · 0.55Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and family members were killed on 28 February 2026 during US-Israeli strikes on Iran.IRAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM · ASSESSED · 0.50MOST CONTESTED REALITIES RIGHT NOW
1Gaza War80/1002PRC Infrastructure Intrusions73/1003Myanmar Civil War71/100From the Contested Reality Index — measured daily.
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