The votes that move the world
Upcoming elections with geopolitical weight: when, what's actually at stake, who's contending — and, where the desk has opened a forecast question, the crowd's live predicted outcome. Every “how likely” here is a scored forecast, never our opinion.
DISTANCE = TIME TO THE VOTE · MONTH-PRECISION RACES PLOTTED AT MID-WINDOW
- ▸First national vote since NATO accession — defense posture consolidation
- ▸The Sweden Democrats' role: from confidence-and-supply to cabinet?
- ▸Gang-violence and migration policy as the defining domestic axis
CONTENDERS · Moderate-led bloc (M+) · Social Democrat bloc (S+)
PREDICTED OUTCOME OPENS WITH THE DESK'S FORECAST QUESTION
- ▸Lula-era continuity vs a Bolsonarist restoration — with Bolsonaro himself ineligible
- ▸Amazon and climate policy direction for the decade
- ▸BRICS posture and the de-dollarization agenda of the bloc's largest democracy
CONTENDERS · Lula da Silva (or PT successor) (PT) · Bolsonarist candidate (TBD) (PL)
PREDICTED OUTCOME OPENS WITH THE DESK'S FORECAST QUESTION
- ▸Republika Srpska secessionism at the ballot box — Dodik's project on the line
- ▸Dayton framework stress test with EU accession stakes
- ▸Spillover coupling with the Serbia–Kosovo theater
CONTENDERS · SNSD (Dodik bloc) (SNSD) · Opposition coalitions (—)
PREDICTED OUTCOME OPENS WITH THE DESK'S FORECAST QUESTION
- ▸Accountability vote on the Gaza war and October 7 — Netanyahu's political survival
- ▸Judicial-overhaul restart or burial
- ▸Coalition arithmetic: ultra-Orthodox conscription and the far-right's leverage
CONTENDERS · Likud (Netanyahu) (Likud) · Opposition bloc (TBD) (—)
PREDICTED OUTCOME OPENS WITH THE DESK'S FORECAST QUESTION
- ▸Control of both congressional chambers — and with it the second half of the Trump term
- ▸Governorships and secretaries of state who administer the 2028 presidential vote
- ▸Election-integrity fights: certification, audits, and litigation infrastructure
CONTENDERS · Republican Party (GOP) · Democratic Party (DEM)
PREDICTED OUTCOME OPENS WITH THE DESK'S FORECAST QUESTION
- ▸Post-Macron France: the RN's clearest path to the Élysée yet
- ▸European strategic autonomy and the Franco-German engine
- ▸Fiscal credibility under bond-market pressure
CONTENDERS · Rassemblement National candidate (RN) · Center/right field (TBD) (—)
PREDICTED OUTCOME OPENS WITH THE DESK'S FORECAST QUESTION
DATES AND FIELDS ARE DESK-VERIFIED BEFORE PUBLISH AND RE-VERIFIED AS RACES FIRM UP · PREDICTIONS ARE SCORED CROWD/AI FORECASTS — SEE /ACCURACY FOR THE TRACK RECORD