66/100
VUCA INDEX
SITUATION · SOUTHEAST ASIA · CONFLICT · DISPLACEMENT · CROSS-BORDER SECURITY · WAR ECONOMY
Myanmar Civil War
VUCA INDEX 66/100STEADYCONFIDENCE 0.50±0 / 14D
WHAT CHANGED · LAST 72H
—Resistance forces hold large swaths of Shan, Rakhine and Kayah states after post-1027 offensives; junta relies on air power and artillery.
—Forced conscription law and battlefield losses drive record displacement and youth flight across borders.
—Scam-center hubs along the Thai and Chinese frontiers draw cross-border crackdowns and repatriations, reshaping the war economy.
INTENSITY · OBSERVED + FORECAST
BASELINE 65+1 VS BASELINE
90D OBSERVEDBASELINE = TRAILING 90D MEDIANFORECAST · DASHED
VUCA COMPONENTS
Volatility68
Uncertainty64
Complexity78
Ambiguity72
MOMENTUM ±0 / 14DHORIZON 90D0 CLAIMS · 0 EVIDENCE ITEMS
THEATER · SOUTHEAST ASIA · INFRASTRUCTURE
LOADING MAP…
BLOOM = CURRENT INTENSITY 66RED = DAMAGED / OFFLINETHERMAL = NASA FIRMS 24HDRAG TO PAN
DOSSIER DEVELOPING
This situation is actively monitored. Its narrative and claims build here as sources are ingested and each claim is verified — evidence first, always.
See a complete dossier: Taiwan Strait Pressure →STRUCTURED DATA · PRIMARY SOURCES
ACLED Conflict Data - Myanmar↗Event-level dataset of battles, airstrikes and fatalities across Myanmar.Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project · weeklyUNHCR Myanmar Situation↗Displacement and refugee figures for Myanmar and neighboring countries.UNHCR · monthlyUNOCHA Myanmar Humanitarian Updates↗Humanitarian needs, access and displacement reporting.UN OCHA · periodic
PRIMARY DATASETS · TRACKED REFERENCE · AUTOMATED SIGNAL EXTRACTION IN A LATER PHASE
RAW SIGNAL · LIVE
INGESTION V0 · UNPROCESSEDTibetan activist dies after setting himself on fire outside UN headquarters↗rfa.org · JUL 3 · 15:10ZAttacks on Health Care in Myanmar: 10 - 23 June 2026↗reliefweb.int · JUL 3 · 13:40ZWorld: Start Fund Monthly Risk Bulletin (Issued: July 2026)↗reliefweb.int · JUL 3 · 11:52ZAfghanistan: Asia-Pacific Overview: July 2026↗reliefweb.int · JUL 3 · 10:33ZInterra exits Myanmar oil project, selling stake to Chinese-linked firm after sanctions pressure↗myanmar-now.org · JUL 3 · 08:25ZMyanmar: Dooplaya District Situation Update: Challenges related to livelihood, education, healthcare, militarisation, displacement, travel restrictions, and drug issues in Waw Ray Township (January to March 2026)↗reliefweb.int · JUL 3 · 05:03ZU.S. still China’s main rival despite report on Japan and Philippines’ capabilities↗rfa.org · JUL 3 · 02:00ZMyanmar | Earthquake - One Year Report (MDRMM023)↗reliefweb.int · JUL 3 · 01:21Z
RAW FEED — NOT YET EXTRACTED INTO CLAIMS · LINKS LEAVE VUCA NEWS
RELATED DYNAMICS