56/100
VUCA INDEX
SITUATION · GLOBAL · PUBLIC HEALTH · ANIMAL HEALTH · PANDEMIC PREPAREDNESS · FOOD SECURITY
H5N1 Panzootic Watch
VUCA INDEX 56/100STEADYCONFIDENCE 0.50±0 / 14D
WHAT CHANGED · LAST 72H
—H5N1 entrenched in US dairy cattle with recurrent herd and worker infections across multiple states
—Sporadic human cases worldwide including severe and fatal outcomes, but no confirmed sustained human-to-human transmission
—Surveillance flags mammalian-adaptation markers (PB2, receptor-binding) as the key escalation trigger
INTENSITY · OBSERVED + FORECAST
BASELINE 54+2 VS BASELINE
90D OBSERVEDBASELINE = TRAILING 90D MEDIANFORECAST · DASHED
VUCA COMPONENTS
Volatility52
Uncertainty68
Complexity58
Ambiguity40
MOMENTUM ±0 / 14DHORIZON 90D0 CLAIMS · 0 EVIDENCE ITEMS
DOSSIER DEVELOPING
This situation is actively monitored. Its narrative and claims build here as sources are ingested and each claim is verified — evidence first, always.
See a complete dossier: Taiwan Strait Pressure →STRUCTURED DATA · PRIMARY SOURCES
CDC H5N1 Bird Flu Current Situation↗US human H5N1 case counts, exposures, and monitoring numbers.US CDC · weeklyUSDA APHIS HPAI in Livestock and Poultry↗Confirmed HPAI detections in dairy herds, commercial poultry, and wild birds.USDA APHIS · as detectedWOAH World Animal Health Information System (WAHIS) - Avian Influenza↗Global animal-sector HPAI outbreak reports by country and species.World Organisation for Animal Health · ongoingWHO Cumulative H5N1 Human Case Table↗Cumulative confirmed human H5N1 cases and deaths reported to WHO.World Health Organization · periodic
PRIMARY DATASETS · TRACKED REFERENCE · AUTOMATED SIGNAL EXTRACTION IN A LATER PHASE
RAW SIGNAL · LIVE
INGESTION V0 · UNPROCESSEDCommunicable disease threats report, 27 June - 3 July 2026, Week 27↗ecdc.europa.eu · JUL 3 · 13:56ZWorld: Alertes de maladies épidémiques et émergentes en Océanie le 30 juin 2026↗reliefweb.int · JUL 3 · 11:00ZWorld: Epidemic and emerging disease alerts in the Pacific as of 30 June 2026↗reliefweb.int · JUN 30 · 11:55ZCommunicable disease threats report, 19 - 26 June 2026, Week 26↗ecdc.europa.eu · JUN 26 · 13:52ZWorld: Alertes de maladies épidémiques et émergentes en Océanie le 23 juin 2026↗reliefweb.int · JUN 25 · 10:23ZWorld: Epidemic and emerging disease alerts in the Pacific as of 23 June 2026↗reliefweb.int · JUN 23 · 12:41ZReporting Protocol for integrated respiratory virus surveillance↗ecdc.europa.eu · JUN 9 · 09:32ZCommunicable disease threats report, 30 May - 5 June 2026, Week 23↗ecdc.europa.eu · JUN 5 · 14:27Z
RAW FEED — NOT YET EXTRACTED INTO CLAIMS · LINKS LEAVE VUCA NEWS
RELATED DYNAMICS