VUCA
54/100
VUCA INDEX
SITUATION · GLOBAL · FINANCE · TRADE · GEOPOLITICS · SANCTIONS

US Dollar Security

VUCA INDEX 54/100STEADYCONFIDENCE 0.50±0 / 14D
WHAT CHANGED · LAST 72H
Dollar share of allocated reserves drifting toward multi-decade lows while gold buying by central banks stays elevated.
BRICS members expand local-currency settlement and alternative payment messaging to hedge sanctions exposure.
US fiscal deficits and debt-ceiling episodes recur as recurring confidence tests for Treasuries.
INTENSITY · OBSERVED + FORECAST
BASELINE 52+2 VS BASELINE
90D OBSERVEDFORECAST · DASHED
VUCA COMPONENTS
Volatility48
Uncertainty60
Complexity52
Ambiguity55
MOMENTUM ±0 / 14DHORIZON 90D0 CLAIMS · 0 EVIDENCE ITEMS
DOSSIER DEVELOPING

This situation is actively monitored. Its narrative and claims build here as sources are ingested and each claim is verified — evidence first, always.

See a complete dossier: Taiwan Strait Pressure
THE DOLLAR, IN PLAIN NUMBERS

The dollar's power as an instrument of statecraft rests on trust in the currency itself. These are the structural numbers underneath that trust — money created, value retained, and how much currency now sits on top of the real economy — drawn straight from Federal Reserve data and shown without the jargon.

WHAT A DOLLAR IS WORTH
12¢OF A 1971 DOLLAR

A dollar saved in 1971 — when the US cut the last tie to gold — buys about 12 cents' worth of goods today. The rest quietly evaporated.

19712026

Purchasing power of one dollar, tracked against consumer prices (FRED: CPIAUCSL). Down and to the right is the erosion.

HOW MUCH MONEY EXISTS
33%MINTED SINCE 2020

Of every dollar in the M2 money supply today, roughly 33% was created since the start of 2020 — the stock went from $15.4T to $23.1T.

2020
19602026

M2 money supply (FRED: M2SL). Shaded: the money created from 2020 onward. Uses M2, not the M1 figure behind the viral '40%' stat, which was inflated by a 2020 accounting change.

MONEY VS. THE REAL ECONOMY
70%OF ANNUAL OUTPUT

There are now about 70 cents of money supply for every dollar of goods and services the economy produces in a year — up from roughly 56 cents in 1970.

19602026

M2 divided by GDP (FRED: M2SL ÷ GDP). More money stacked on the same output is the pressure the dollar has to absorb.

HOW HARD EACH DOLLAR WORKS
1.41×TURNS PER YEAR

Each dollar now changes hands about 1.4 times a year, down from 2.2× at its peak. Slower money is why all that printing didn't detonate prices — but it means the system is absorbing, not using, the extra dollars.

19602026

M2 velocity (FRED: M2V). The context chart: it's why this is a slow-burning risk, not an overnight one.

Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), St. Louis Fed — public series, refreshed weekly. Next layer: reserve-currency share (IMF COFER), central-bank gold buying (World Gold Council), and foreign Treasury holdings (US Treasury TIC) — the de-dollarization side of the ledger.

STRUCTURED DATA · PRIMARY SOURCES

PRIMARY DATASETS · TRACKED REFERENCE · AUTOMATED SIGNAL EXTRACTION IN A LATER PHASE

RELATED DYNAMICS