US Dollar Security
The US dollar retains roughly 58% of global reserves and dominates cross-border settlement, sustaining Washington's sanctions leverage. But aggressive weaponization since 2022 has pushed China, Russia and Gulf states toward local-currency trade, gold accumulation and alternative rails, while a widening US deficit and Fed rate path drive periodic confidence swings.
Why it matters — This matters because the dollar's grip on reserves and payment rails is what makes US sanctions bite, so every gold purchase and local-currency deal by China, Russia, and the Gulf slowly weakens Washington's ability to punish adversaries without firing a shot.
Why now — Aggressive sanctions weaponization since 2022 plus a widening US deficit are pushing BRICS states toward alternative rails, even as the dollar still holds roughly 58% of reserves.
WHAT CHANGED · LAST 72H
- —US revoked licence permitting Iran's first open dollar-denominated oil sales in years.
- —Iran's Ghalibaf accused Washington of ceasefire violations, citing reinstated oil sanctions.
- —Brent surged ~6.5% to $79 after Trump declared the ceasefire over.
KEY CLAIMS ON THE RECORD · 5 TOTAL
| Brent crude jumped roughly 6.5% to 79 US dollars a barrel on Wednesday after Trump declared the ceasefire over. | ASSESSED · 0.55 · 1 EVID |
| The US revoked a licence that had, for the first time in years, allowed Iran to conduct oil sales openly in US dollars under the interim deal. | ASSESSED · 0.55 · 1 EVID |
| MFS Investment Management assessed the US dollar remains dominant globally but is slowly losing ground as a store of value. | ASSESSED · 0.50 · 1 EVID |
| MFS cited tariffs, sanctions and fiscal pressures pushing central banks toward non-dollar assets including gold and emerging market currencies. | ASSESSED · 0.50 · 1 EVID |
| Iran's negotiator Ghalibaf accused the US of ceasefire violations including reinstating oil sanctions and persistent strike threats. | ASSESSED · 0.50 · 1 EVID |
OPEN FORECASTS · SCORED CROWD
- Will foreign official holdings of US Treasury securities fall below $9.0T for any reported month on or before 2028-06-30?no forecasts yet · closes 2028-06-30
- Will the IMF COFER US dollar reserve share fall below 55% for any reported quarter on or before 2028-06-30?no forecasts yet · closes 2028-06-30
DOWNSTREAM EFFECTS · WATCH INDICATORS
- US sanctions coercive leverage — As BRICS and Gulf states settle trade in local currencies, gold and non-SWIFT rails, fewer transactions route through dollar chokepoints Washington can freeze, blunting sanctions bite. Watch: Share of Russian/Iranian oil sales settled outside USD and monthly CIPS transaction volumes
- Russia's war financing resilience — Dollar weaponization pushes Russia into yuan-and-gold oil settlement, which then keeps Moscow's budget revenues flowing despite sanctions and sustains the offensive tempo in Ukraine. Watch: Russian federal oil-and-gas budget revenues and yuan share of Russian export settlement (CBR data)
- Iran oil exports and nuclear program funding — Non-dollar settlement channels let Iran move crude to China off-books, which then hardens Tehran's fiscal base and reduces its incentive to trade nuclear concessions for sanctions relief. Watch: Iranian crude exports to China (Kpler/Vortexa tanker tracking, target ~1.5M bpd)
- US Treasury borrowing costs — If foreign central banks divert reserves into gold and EM assets, marginal demand for Treasuries softens, forcing higher yields to fund the widening US deficit. Watch: Foreign official Treasury holdings (TIC data) and 10-year yield term premium