Ebola Outbreak Tracking
This matters because an Ebola flare-up that jumps a porous DRC border into a city or refugee corridor can overwhelm fragile health systems fast, and the only real brakes are limited vaccine stockpiles and rapid-response teams that take days to deploy.
Central Africa is in an active surveillance-alert posture with recurrent DRC and Uganda flare-ups, and cross-border movement keeps regional spillover risk elevated between events.
Washington's official risk judgment for the countries in this theater. Levels move rarely and deliberately — a change is a policy signal in itself.
SOURCE: US DEPT OF STATE, BUREAU OF CONSULAR AFFAIRS (PUBLIC DOMAIN) · UPDATED = STATE'S OWN TIMESTAMP · ADVISORIES ARE A US-GOVERNMENT PERSPECTIVE, NOT A NEUTRAL RISK INDEX
How coverage of this dynamic sounds, measured daily with an open lexicon over the last week's reporting — not what is true, and not our judgment. Rows split by worldview appear when sources align to a published faction (via desk-reviewed profiles or the weekly lexicon ledger); until then, the overall tone stands alone.
DETERMINISTIC LEXICON · 7-DAY WINDOW, DAILY · OFF-TOPIC ITEMS EXCLUDED · HOVER DOC COUNTS FOR THE OUTLETS · SCORING ENGINE IGNORES THIS ENTIRELY
GOOGLE TRENDS, TRAILING 90 DAYS · NORMALIZED TO ITS OWN PEAK (100) — RELATIVE ATTENTION, NOT VOLUME · NOT A SCORING INPUT
A dedicated analyst reads this dynamic's data on a schedule and ranks what actually threatens the status quo — then proposes the dated, resolvable questions whose crowd and AI forecasts become the real measure of “how likely.” Assessments are desk-reviewed; the competition board below is straight from the numbers.
The odds on the questions that would settle it — the crowd against the published AI baseline. Add yours on the forecasts page.
VIOLET NODES = THIRD-ORDER (PROPAGATES THROUGH ANOTHER TRACKED SITUATION) · MECHANISMS & WATCH INDICATORS BELOW
BECAUSE Ebola response teams need safe corridors, but active M23 and militia fighting blocks vaccination and burial teams from reaching cases, which then lets the outbreak seed uncontrolled transmission inside contested zones and diverts MONUSCO logistics from security tasks.
WATCH FOR WHO situation reports citing 'inaccessible' or security-blocked health zones in North Kivu/Ituri
BECAUSE Africa CDC calling this the fastest-growing continental outbreak means ring-vaccination demand outpaces the finite ICG-managed emergency stockpile faster than manufacturing can replenish it.
WATCH FOR ICG/Gavi reported global Ebola vaccine stockpile doses available vs. the ~500k target
BECAUSE A confirmed Kisangani case plus provincial spread triggers movement restrictions and screening on Congo River and road corridors, which then delays mineral shipments toward Matadi/Dar es Salaam and tightens battery-metal supply visibility.
WATCH FOR DRC mining-zone quarantine orders or reported shipment delays at Lubumbashi/Matadi export routes
BECAUSE The first France case arrived via Air France with five flagged passengers, so any secondary transmission would force EU airport screening and treatment-bed mobilization far from the source.
WATCH FOR Confirmed secondary Ebola cases in France or new EU-country importations reported by ECDC
BECAUSE Uganda declared its own May 15 outbreak yet dispatched personnel and two mobile labs to DRC, thinning the diagnostic and staffing reserve it needs at home.
WATCH FOR Uganda Ministry of Health case counts and whether it recalls or requests external lab support
BECAUSE Porous DRC borders with case spread to a 600km-distant city push neighboring states toward border checks and closures that throttle informal trade and displace mobile populations.
WATCH FOR Border-closure or health-screening announcements by Rwanda, Uganda, CAR or South Sudan
BECAUSE Quarantines and movement limits suppress market attendance and agricultural labor, which then strains local food supply and pushes WFP to expand emergency feeding in already fragile provinces.
WATCH FOR WFP/FEWS NET food-insecurity phase upgrades in affected DRC provinces
The glow marks this situation's center — its size follows the current intensity (62/100). Drag to pan; the buttons on the map add layers.
Uganda's outbreak remains limited with its last confirmed case reported 21 June 2026 and one admitted case.
Resolves YES if WHO or Uganda's Ministry of Health formally declares the Uganda Ebola outbreak (declared 15 May 2026) over on or before 2026-09-30, per an official statement confirmed by at least one of Reuters/AP/AFP. Resolves NO otherwise.
The DRC Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak declared on 15 May 2026 remains active and case reporting continues.
Resolves YES if WHO situation reports or Africa CDC official figures state a cumulative confirmed case total of 3,000 or more for the DRC Ebola outbreak declared on 15 May 2026, at any point on or before 2026-09-30, per WHO or Africa CDC published data confirmed by at least one of Reuters/AP/AFP. Resolves NO otherwise.
The outbreak death toll stood at at least 452 as of 3 July 2026 and reporting continues.
Resolves YES if WHO situation reports or the DRC Ministry of Health (reported by two of Reuters/AP/AFP) put cumulative deaths in the current DRC Ebola outbreak at 600 or more on any date on or before 2026-10-31. Resolves NO otherwise.
The current DRC Ebola outbreak remains active as of the drafting date, with a case recently confirmed in Kisangani.
Resolves YES if the World Health Organization (or the DRC Ministry of Health, reported by two of Reuters/AP/AFP) issues an official statement declaring the end of the current DRC Ebola outbreak on or before 2026-12-31. Resolves NO otherwise.
Index down 3 this week; inputs moved together, none dominating.
- +forecasters genuinely disagree on open questions
- +sharp day-over-day shift in reporting rate
- +1 of 39 published claims in active dispute
- +278 sources fresh within 48h
Reading this block: score change = the VUCA composite vs prior periods (24H/7D/30D). Momentum (on cards) = directional pressure over 14 days — a dynamic can be up on 14 days and flat this week. Coverage measures reporting volume, not world events. Confidence is our confidence in the assessment, not in any outcome.
Lead international coordinator tracking case counts and deploying response teams
Primary national responder confirming cases and running containment
Regional coordinator supporting surveillance and vaccine logistics
The pathogen whose spread and lethality are being tracked
Field responder providing treatment and community engagement
PRIMARY DATASETS · TRACKED REFERENCE · AUTOMATED SIGNAL EXTRACTION IN A LATER PHASE
▸UNVERIFIED SIGNAL · 8 ITEMS NOT YET CONFIRMED ON-TOPIC
Число смертей от Эболы в ДР Конго увеличилось до 828↗kommersant.ru · JUL 16 · 23:34ZЧисло жертв лихорадки Эбола в ДР Конго превысило 800 человек↗ria.ru · JUL 16 · 22:50ZA Luanda, Félix Tshisekedi plaide pour une paix fondée sur le droit↗radiookapi.net · JUL 16 · 22:26ZLancement à Kinshasa des travaux d’assainissement par le Service national↗radiookapi.net · JUL 16 · 21:08ZRoute Moanda-Kinshasa : les chauffeurs de taxi dénoncent les tracasseries↗radiookapi.net · JUL 16 · 20:32ZFélix Tshisekedi participe au sommet mondial pour la paix à Luanda↗radiookapi.net · JUL 16 · 18:25ZKalehe : les retournés de Mbinga‑Nord en grande difficulté↗radiookapi.net · JUL 16 · 17:39ZВ Уганде выписали последнего пациента, вылечившегося от Эболы — ВОЗ↗afrinz.ru · JUL 16 · 17:13ZRAW FEED — NOT YET EXTRACTED INTO CLAIMS · OFF-TOPIC ITEMS ARE FILTERED BUT KEPT FOR AUDIT · LINKS LEAVE VUCA NEWS
›What is happening with Ebola Outbreak Tracking?
Recurrent Ebola flare-ups in Central Africa keep surveillance systems on alert. Ebola virus disease continues to erupt periodically in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Uganda and neighboring states, with the DRC alone having weathered more than a dozen outbreaks. Case counts, geographic spread and case-fatality rates fluctuate sharply between events, and vaccine stockpiles plus rapid-response teams are the primary containment levers. Cross-border movement and porous health systems keep regional spillover risk elevated.
›Why does ebola outbreak tracking matter?
This matters because an Ebola flare-up that jumps a porous DRC border into a city or refugee corridor can overwhelm fragile health systems fast, and the only real brakes are limited vaccine stockpiles and rapid-response teams that take days to deploy.
›Will WHO or Uganda's health ministry declare Uganda's Ebola outbreak officially over on or before 2026-09-30?
This question is open for forecasting but has no submissions yet (resolves 2026-09-30). We show no number until real forecasters commit one.
›How serious is the situation right now?
The VUCA index reads 62/100 (0 = calm, 100 = critical) and is rising over the last 14 days. The score is computed daily from measured inputs and explains itself on this page.
›How does VUCA News know this?
Ebola Outbreak Tracking carries 39 published claims, each linked to its evidence chain and verification state. Nothing publishes without passing the verification pipeline; the method is public at vucanews.com/methodology.