Ebola Outbreak Tracking
Ebola virus disease continues to erupt periodically in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Uganda and neighboring states, with the DRC alone having weathered more than a dozen outbreaks. Case counts, geographic spread and case-fatality rates fluctuate sharply between events, and vaccine stockpiles plus rapid-response teams are the primary containment levers. Cross-border movement and porous health systems keep regional spillover risk elevated.
Why it matters — This matters because an Ebola flare-up that jumps a porous DRC border into a city or refugee corridor can overwhelm fragile health systems fast, and the only real brakes are limited vaccine stockpiles and rapid-response teams that take days to deploy.
Why now — Central Africa is in an active surveillance-alert posture with recurrent DRC and Uganda flare-ups, and cross-border movement keeps regional spillover risk elevated between events.
WHAT CHANGED · LAST 72H
- —DRC toll hits 600 deaths across 1,759 confirmed cases, 34% CFR; Africa CDC calls it continent's fastest-growing.
- —Bundibugyo spreads beyond Ituri: suspected cases in Tshopo and Haut-Uele, plus Kisangani, 600km from epicentre.
- —Uganda declares its outbreak contained; dispatches personnel and two mobile labs to DRC.
KEY CLAIMS ON THE RECORD · 32 TOTAL
| Uganda recorded 20 cumulative confirmed Ebola cases as of July 5, 2026: 15 imported from DRC and five locally transmitted. | ASSESSED · 0.70 · 2 EVID |
| WHO enrolled first patients in a clinical trial testing remdesivir and MBP-134 against Bundibugyo virus, announced around July 2, 2026. | ASSESSED · 0.70 · 2 EVID |
| WHO reported 1,759 confirmed Ebola cases and 600 deaths in DRC since the outbreak was declared in mid-May. | ASSESSED · 0.70 · 1 EVID |
| Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak in Congo and Uganda reached 1,779 confirmed cases and 602 deaths, a 34% case fatality rate, as of July 9, 2026. | ASSESSED · 0.65 · 1 EVID |
| A humanitarian doctor tested positive for Ebola in France, the first case on French territory, after flying from DRC on 23 June 2026. | ASSESSED · 0.62 · 1 EVID |
| The French Ebola patient recovered after two negative PCR tests and was discharged, French Health Minister Stéphanie Rist said. | ASSESSED · 0.62 · 1 EVID |
| The DRC outbreak is driven by the rare Bundibugyo Ebola species, which has no approved vaccines or treatments. | ASSESSED · 0.62 · 1 EVID |
| The DRC Ebola outbreak has claimed at least 452 lives, according to figures as of 3 July 2026. | ASSESSED · 0.60 · 1 EVID |
DOWNSTREAM EFFECTS · WATCH INDICATORS
- Kisangani urban containment risk — A confirmed case in a city of over one million people 600 km from the epicentre creates dense-transmission and airport-hub spread that mobile labs and rapid-response teams struggle to ring-fence. Watch: WHO DRC situation reports for Kisangani case count and any new health-zone declarations over the next 4 weeks
- EV battery and chip mineral supply chains — Ebola quarantines and movement restrictions in DRC mining provinces cut cobalt and coltan output, tightening critical-mineral leverage, which then raises input costs and delivery risk for battery and semiconductor makers. Watch: DRC monthly cobalt export tonnage and LME cobalt spot price
- Global rVSV-ZEBOV vaccine stockpile — Simultaneous DRC and Uganda outbreaks force ring-vaccination drawdowns from a fixed emergency stockpile, shrinking the buffer for the next flare-up. Watch: ICG/Gavi published doses-available figure and any replenishment orders to Merck
- International airline screening and entry rules — The imported France case and infected co-passengers prompt stepped-up US and EU entry screening and contact-tracing on flights originating from the region. Watch: Number of states imposing DRC-travel entry restrictions or IATA/ECDC screening advisories issued