Ebola Outbreak Tracking
Ebola virus disease continues to erupt periodically in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Uganda and neighboring states, with the DRC alone having weathered more than a dozen outbreaks. Case counts, geographic spread and case-fatality rates fluctuate sharply between events, and vaccine stockpiles plus rapid-response teams are the primary containment levers. Cross-border movement and porous health systems keep regional spillover risk elevated.
Why it matters — This matters because an Ebola flare-up that jumps a porous DRC border into a city or refugee corridor can overwhelm fragile health systems fast, and the only real brakes are limited vaccine stockpiles and rapid-response teams that take days to deploy.
Why now — Central Africa is in an active surveillance-alert posture with recurrent DRC and Uganda flare-ups, and cross-border movement keeps regional spillover risk elevated between events.
WHAT CHANGED · LAST 72H
- —DRC confirmed cases hit 2,011 with 754 deaths — fastest-growing Ebola outbreak on record.
- —Outbreak expands to five provinces, adding Haut-Uele and Tshopo beyond the Ituri epicentre.
- —Uganda begins 42-day countdown after final patient discharged; DRC treatment beds at 95.1% capacity.
KEY CLAIMS ON THE RECORD · 50 TOTAL
| Outbreak has spread to 49 health zones across five DRC provinces: Ituri, North Kivu, South Kivu, Haut-Uélé and Tshopo. | VERIFIED · 0.85 · 0 EVID |
| Uganda's Ministry of Health declared the end of its BVD outbreak on 28 July 2026 after 42 days without a new locally transmitted case. | VERIFIED · 0.85 · 1 EVID |
| Uganda recorded 20 cumulative confirmed Ebola cases as of July 5, 2026: 15 imported from DRC and five locally transmitted. | ASSESSED · 0.85 · 2 EVID |
| DRC reported 3,605 confirmed BVD cases and 1,587 deaths as of 30 July 2026, CFR 44%. | VERIFIED · 0.82 · 1 EVID |
| This BVD outbreak is now the largest Ebola virus disease outbreak ever recorded in DRC, surpassing the 2018-2020 outbreak's 3,317 cases. | VERIFIED · 0.80 · 0 EVID |
| North-Kivu province, DRC, continues to experience high transmission of Bundibugyo virus disease as of August 3, 2026. | VERIFIED · 0.80 · 0 EVID |
| The DRC outbreak is driven by the rare Bundibugyo Ebola species, which has no approved vaccines or treatments. | ASSESSED · 0.80 · 3 EVID |
| WHO enrolled first patients in a clinical trial testing remdesivir and MBP-134 against Bundibugyo virus, announced around July 2, 2026. | ASSESSED · 0.78 · 3 EVID |
OPEN FORECASTS · SCORED CROWD
- Will WHO or Uganda's health ministry declare Uganda's Ebola outbreak officially over on or before 2026-09-30?no forecasts yet · closes 2026-09-30
- Will the cumulative reported death toll of the DRC Ebola outbreak reach at least 1,000 on or before 2026-11-30?no forecasts yet · closes 2026-11-30
- Will the DRC's cumulative confirmed Ebola case count reach at least 3,000 on or before 2026-09-30?no forecasts yet · closes 2026-09-30
- Will the cumulative reported death toll of the DRC Ebola outbreak reach at least 600 on or before 2026-10-31?no forecasts yet · closes 2026-10-31
DOWNSTREAM EFFECTS · WATCH INDICATORS
- Global emergency Ebola vaccine stockpile — Africa CDC calls this the continent's fastest-growing outbreak, so containing ~2,000 cases across five provinces draws down the finite ICG-managed ERVEBO reserve faster than it can be replenished. Watch: ICG/Gavi reported doses shipped to DRC versus remaining stockpile size
- DRC cobalt and coltan export flows — Spread to Tshopo and a major city like Kisangani forces movement restrictions and quarantines near mining and transit corridors, which then tightens the DRC-dependent battery-mineral supply and pressures buyers seeking alternatives. Watch: LME cobalt price and monthly DRC cobalt/coltan export tonnage
- European border health-screening politics — The first Ebola case on French soil via a DRC flight revives arrival-screening and quarantine demands, which populist parties then fold into anti-migration messaging to justify tighter entry controls. Watch: EU airport thermal/entry screening reinstatement or party statements linking Ebola to migration limits
- DRC Great Lakes containment operations — Outbreak zones overlap eastern conflict areas, so armed insecurity blocks rapid-response and vaccination teams, which then deepens displacement and lets the virus move with fleeing populations. Watch: WHO/MONUSCO reports of teams unable to access affected health zones due to insecurity