Ebola Outbreak Tracking
This matters because an Ebola flare-up that jumps a porous DRC border into a city or refugee corridor can overwhelm fragile health systems fast, and the only real brakes are limited vaccine stockpiles and rapid-response teams that take days to deploy.
Central Africa is in an active surveillance-alert posture with recurrent DRC and Uganda flare-ups, and cross-border movement keeps regional spillover risk elevated between events.
Washington's official risk judgment for the countries in this theater. Levels move rarely and deliberately — a change is a policy signal in itself.
SOURCE: US DEPT OF STATE, BUREAU OF CONSULAR AFFAIRS (PUBLIC DOMAIN) · UPDATED = STATE'S OWN TIMESTAMP · ADVISORIES ARE A US-GOVERNMENT PERSPECTIVE, NOT A NEUTRAL RISK INDEX
How coverage of this dynamic sounds, measured daily with an open lexicon over the last week's reporting — not what is true, and not our judgment. Rows split by worldview appear when sources align to a published faction (via desk-reviewed profiles or the weekly lexicon ledger); until then, the overall tone stands alone.
DETERMINISTIC LEXICON · 7-DAY WINDOW, DAILY · OFF-TOPIC ITEMS EXCLUDED · HOVER DOC COUNTS FOR THE OUTLETS · SCORING ENGINE IGNORES THIS ENTIRELY
THE TWO MEASUREMENTS DISAGREE — SEARCH AND READERSHIP CAPTURE DIFFERENT PUBLICS; DIVERGENCE IS ITSELF A SIGNAL
SEARCH: GOOGLE TRENDS, NORMALIZED TO ITS OWN 90-DAY PEAK — RELATIVE, NOT VOLUME · READERSHIP: WIKIMEDIA PAGEVIEWS API, ABSOLUTE DAILY READERS OF THE MAPPED ARTICLES · NOT A SCORING INPUT
A dedicated analyst reads this dynamic's data on a schedule and ranks what actually threatens the status quo — then proposes the dated, resolvable questions whose crowd and AI forecasts become the real measure of “how likely.” Assessments are desk-reviewed; the competition board below is straight from the numbers.
The odds on the questions that would settle it — the crowd against the published AI baseline. Add yours on the forecasts page.
VIOLET NODES = THIRD-ORDER (PROPAGATES THROUGH ANOTHER TRACKED SITUATION) · MECHANISMS & WATCH INDICATORS BELOW
BECAUSE Africa CDC calls this the continent's fastest-growing outbreak, so containing ~2,000 cases across five provinces draws down the finite ICG-managed ERVEBO reserve faster than it can be replenished.
WATCH FOR ICG/Gavi reported doses shipped to DRC versus remaining stockpile size
BECAUSE Spread to Tshopo and a major city like Kisangani forces movement restrictions and quarantines near mining and transit corridors, which then tightens the DRC-dependent battery-mineral supply and pressures buyers seeking alternatives.
WATCH FOR LME cobalt price and monthly DRC cobalt/coltan export tonnage
BECAUSE The first Ebola case on French soil via a DRC flight revives arrival-screening and quarantine demands, which populist parties then fold into anti-migration messaging to justify tighter entry controls.
WATCH FOR EU airport thermal/entry screening reinstatement or party statements linking Ebola to migration limits
BECAUSE Outbreak zones overlap eastern conflict areas, so armed insecurity blocks rapid-response and vaccination teams, which then deepens displacement and lets the virus move with fleeing populations.
WATCH FOR WHO/MONUSCO reports of teams unable to access affected health zones due to insecurity
BECAUSE Having declared its own May 2026 outbreak, Uganda is exporting personnel, two mobile labs and logistics to DRC, stretching domestic response capacity against renewed cross-border importation.
WATCH FOR Ugandan Health Ministry confirmed case count and further cross-border deployments
BECAUSE A confirmed case 600km from the epicentre plus international export to France raises pressure for travel curbs and a possible WHO PHEIC that would suspend routes and slow commerce.
WATCH FOR WHO PHEIC declaration or flight suspensions to/from affected DRC provinces
BECAUSE The State Department's pledge to contain 'at the source' commits US money and personnel, and rising death tolls (700+) determine whether that funding scales up or donor fatigue sets in.
WATCH FOR Announced US/WHO emergency appropriations or funding-gap warnings for the DRC response
The glow marks this situation's center — its size follows the current intensity (42/100). Drag to pan; the buttons on the map add layers.
THEATER WEATHER · NDOLO: CLEAR SKY · 29.3°C · WIND 0.79 M/S · RH 39% · AS OF 20:04 UTC · OPENWEATHER
Uganda's outbreak remains limited with its last confirmed case reported 21 June 2026 and one admitted case.
Resolves YES if WHO or Uganda's Ministry of Health formally declares the Uganda Ebola outbreak (declared 15 May 2026) over on or before 2026-09-30, per an official statement confirmed by at least one of Reuters/AP/AFP. Resolves NO otherwise.
The current DRC Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak remains active with ongoing case reporting.
Resolves YES if WHO situation reports or Africa CDC official figures state the cumulative death toll of the current DRC Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak has reached 1,000 or more on or before 2026-11-30, as reported by two of Reuters/AP/AFP or in official WHO/Africa CDC bulletins. Resolves NO otherwise.
The DRC Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak declared on 15 May 2026 remains active and case reporting continues.
Resolves YES if WHO situation reports or Africa CDC official figures state a cumulative confirmed case total of 3,000 or more for the DRC Ebola outbreak declared on 15 May 2026, at any point on or before 2026-09-30, per WHO or Africa CDC published data confirmed by at least one of Reuters/AP/AFP. Resolves NO otherwise.
The outbreak death toll stood at at least 452 as of 3 July 2026 and reporting continues.
Resolves YES if WHO situation reports or the DRC Ministry of Health (reported by two of Reuters/AP/AFP) put cumulative deaths in the current DRC Ebola outbreak at 600 or more on any date on or before 2026-10-31. Resolves NO otherwise.
The DRC outbreak continues to generate cross-border movement and spillover risk in the region.
Resolves YES if WHO or Africa CDC officially confirms at least one Ebola virus disease case in any African country other than the Democratic Republic of Congo or Uganda, with the confirmation dated on or before 2026-10-31 and reported by two of Reuters/AP/AFP or in an official WHO/Africa CDC bulletin. Resolves NO otherwise.
The current DRC Ebola outbreak remains active as of the drafting date, with a case recently confirmed in Kisangani.
Resolves YES if the World Health Organization (or the DRC Ministry of Health, reported by two of Reuters/AP/AFP) issues an official statement declaring the end of the current DRC Ebola outbreak on or before 2026-12-31. Resolves NO otherwise.
Index down 4 this week; inputs moved together, none dominating.
- +forecasters genuinely disagree on open questions
- +1 of 45 published claims in active dispute
- -high verification reject rate in the queue
- +178 sources fresh within 48h
Reading this block: score change = the VUCA composite vs prior periods (24H/7D/30D). Momentum (on cards) = directional pressure over 14 days — a dynamic can be up on 14 days and flat this week. Coverage measures reporting volume, not world events. Confidence is our confidence in the assessment, not in any outcome.
Lead international coordinator tracking case counts and deploying response teams
Primary national responder confirming cases and running containment
Regional coordinator supporting surveillance and vaccine logistics
The pathogen whose spread and lethality are being tracked
Field responder providing treatment and community engagement
PRIMARY DATASETS · TRACKED REFERENCE · AUTOMATED SIGNAL EXTRACTION IN A LATER PHASE
▸UNVERIFIED SIGNAL · 8 ITEMS NOT YET CONFIRMED ON-TOPIC
RDC: face à la progression d’Ebola, Jean Kaseya évalue la riposte à Bunia et appelle à accélérer les efforts↗actualite.cd · AUG 4 · 12:48ZGrâce à l'engagement d'Airtel Congo RDC, le Festival Muanda Beach Cup 2026 connaît une première édition réussie↗actualite.cd · AUG 4 · 12:36ZGlencore renforce sa direction en RDC et réaffirme son engagement en faveur du leadership congolais↗actualite.cd · AUG 4 · 10:30ZHow Virunga Park protects people and gorillas from Ebola in eastern DRC↗aljazeera.com · AUG 2 · 03:46ZLa MONUSCO lance un projet d'engagement communautaire pour freiner l'épidémie d'Ebola à Djugu↗radiookapi.net · AUG 1 · 16:20ZEbola en RDC : face à une épidémie qui progresse, le PAM alerte sur le risque d’une crise incontrôlable sans un renforcement urgent de l’aide alimentaire et logistique↗actualite.cd · JUL 31 · 17:37ZDR Congo: Ebola is putting millions of children at risk↗reliefweb.int · JUL 31 · 15:04ZDR Congo: RÉPUBLIQUE DÉMOCRATIQUE DU CONGO - Présence opérationnelle des acteurs de la réponse humanitaire dans les zones affectées par la MVE - au 28 juillet 2026↗reliefweb.int · JUL 31 · 14:50ZRAW FEED — NOT YET EXTRACTED INTO CLAIMS · OFF-TOPIC ITEMS ARE FILTERED BUT KEPT FOR AUDIT · LINKS LEAVE VUCA NEWS
›What is happening with Ebola Outbreak Tracking?
DRC confirmed cases hit 2,011 with 754 deaths — fastest-growing Ebola outbreak on record. Ebola virus disease continues to erupt periodically in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Uganda and neighboring states, with the DRC alone having weathered more than a dozen outbreaks. Case counts, geographic spread and case-fatality rates fluctuate sharply between events, and vaccine stockpiles plus rapid-response teams are the primary containment levers. Cross-border movement and porous health systems keep regional spillover risk elevated.
›Why does ebola outbreak tracking matter?
This matters because an Ebola flare-up that jumps a porous DRC border into a city or refugee corridor can overwhelm fragile health systems fast, and the only real brakes are limited vaccine stockpiles and rapid-response teams that take days to deploy.
›Will WHO or Uganda's health ministry declare Uganda's Ebola outbreak officially over on or before 2026-09-30?
This question is open for forecasting but has no submissions yet (resolves 2026-09-30). We show no number until real forecasters commit one.
›How serious is the situation right now?
The VUCA index reads 42/100 (0 = calm, 100 = critical) and is easing over the last 14 days. The score is computed daily from measured inputs and explains itself on this page.
›How does VUCA News know this?
Ebola Outbreak Tracking carries 49 published claims, each linked to its evidence chain and verification state. Nothing publishes without passing the verification pipeline; the method is public at vucanews.com/methodology.