VUCA
THE DAILY RECORD · APPEND-ONLY

The world on 2026-08-04

This page is a permanent record: what we published and how the index moved on this day. It does not change.

INDEX MOVEMENT · 10 SITUATIONS MOVED
+5Natural Rubber Security58-4Sahel Security Cascade50-4Global Oil Markets54-3American Industrial Reshoring53+3Turkey Regional Power Projection63+3Myanmar Civil War50-3India–Pakistan Crisis42-3Ukraine Home Front56-3Construction Sand Scarcity53-3Essequibo Dispute45
PUBLISHED CLAIMS · 16
13:28ZUKRAINE HOME FRONTVERIFIED · 0.82An operating Ukrainian nuclear power plant reported disconnection of a power line coinciding with detection of a cruise missile and a drone nearby.13:28ZUKRAINE HOME FRONTVERIFIED · 0.90An estimated 3.9 million people remained internally displaced in Ukraine as of June 2026, per IOM.13:28ZUKRAINE HOME FRONTVERIFIED · 0.85Interest in local integration among displaced Ukrainians rose from 51 percent in March to 58 percent in June 2026.13:28ZUKRAINE HOME FRONTVERIFIED · 0.8587 percent of displaced Ukrainian households have taken at least one difficult coping step, per IOM survey.13:28ZUKRAINE HOME FRONTVERIFIED · 0.85An estimated 132,000 people were newly displaced within Ukraine between January and June 2026.13:28ZGAZA WARVERIFIED · 0.90ICRC transferred 88 individuals from Kerem Shalom crossing to Nasser Medical Complex in Gaza in a voluntary family reunification operation.13:28ZUKRAINE HOME FRONTVERIFIED · 0.82The Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant experienced a two-day internet outage, the longest disruption since IAEA's continuous presence began nearly four years ago.13:28ZUKRAINE HOME FRONTASSESSED · 0.80Russia launched over 280 attack drones at Ukraine overnight on 30 July 2026, targeting Kyiv and other regions.13:28ZUKRAINE HOME FRONTASSESSED · 0.82Russia launched more than 70 missiles, including ballistic missiles, at Ukraine overnight on 30 July 2026.13:28ZVENEZUELA REGIME PRESSUREVERIFIED · 0.85Earthquakes occurred in Venezuela on 24 June 2026, prompting a humanitarian response addendum.13:27ZEBOLA OUTBREAK TRACKINGVERIFIED · 0.80This BVD outbreak is now the largest Ebola virus disease outbreak ever recorded in DRC, surpassing the 2018-2020 outbreak's 3,317 cases.13:27ZGAZA WARVERIFIED · 0.85The 88 individuals had been separated from their families in Gaza for two and a half years due to hostilities.13:26ZUKRAINE HOME FRONTVERIFIED · 0.8582 percent of internally displaced Ukrainians say they will only return home once fighting stops, per IOM.13:26ZEBOLA OUTBREAK TRACKINGVERIFIED · 0.85Outbreak has spread to 49 health zones across five DRC provinces: Ituri, North Kivu, South Kivu, Haut-Uélé and Tshopo.13:26ZEBOLA OUTBREAK TRACKINGVERIFIED · 0.85Uganda's Ministry of Health declared the end of its BVD outbreak on 28 July 2026 after 42 days without a new locally transmitted case.13:26ZEBOLA OUTBREAK TRACKINGVERIFIED · 0.82DRC reported 3,605 confirmed BVD cases and 1,587 deaths as of 30 July 2026, CFR 44%.

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