76/100
VUCA INDEX
SITUATION · EAST ASIA · MILITARY · TRADE
Taiwan Strait Pressure
VUCA INDEX 76/100RISINGCONFIDENCE 0.73+9 / 14D
WHAT CHANGED · LAST 72H
—Median daily ADIZ sorties doubled, 11 to 26, over two weeks.
—Three insurers repriced strait-transit war-risk premiums upward.
—Two container lines rerouted east of Taiwan.
INTENSITY · OBSERVED + FORECAST
BASELINE 66+10 VS BASELINE
90D OBSERVEDBASELINE = TRAILING 90D MEDIANFORECAST · DASHED
VUCA COMPONENTS
Volatility79
Uncertainty61
Complexity71
Ambiguity57
MOMENTUM +9 / 14DHORIZON 90D41 CLAIMS · 87 EVIDENCE ITEMS
ANALYST VIEW · THREATS, COMPETITION & THE ODDS
A dedicated analyst reads this dynamic's data on a schedule and ranks what actually threatens the status quo — then proposes the dated, resolvable questions whose crowd and AI forecasts become the real measure of “how likely.” Assessments are desk-reviewed; the competition board below is straight from the numbers.
HOW LIKELY? · SCORED FORECASTS, NOT ASSERTIONS
The odds on the questions that would settle it — the crowd against the published AI baseline. Add yours on the forecasts page.
Will Taiwan's Legislative Yuan approve the remaining (final one-third) portion of the $40 billion special defense package requested by Lai Ching-te before December 31, 2026?
30%SEED30%@AI
PRC declares a maritime exercise closure zone within 12 nm of a Taiwan-held island before Oct 1, 2026
84%CROWD·168%@AI
Median daily ADIZ incursions exceed 30 for any 7-day window before Sep 1, 2026
26%CROWD·133%@AI
Will the PLA announce a named large-scale joint military exercise encircling or surrounding Taiwan (e.g. a 'Joint Sword' iteration) before October 1, 2026?
80%SEED80%@AI
RAW SIGNAL · LIVE
INGESTION V0 · UNPROCESSEDSKNVibes | NIA Breaks Ground on Transformative Multi-Million-Dollar Airport Expansion Project↗sknvibes.com · JUL 5 · 18:30ZTaiwan military resumes ‘anti-communist’ classes for graduates, citing Chinese threat↗whbl.com · JUL 5 · 08:30ZUS diplomat wants to turn Taiwan into hornets nest of drones↗batonrougepost.com · JUL 4 · 19:30ZDoctor urges safe sex among young people to stop HPV↗taipeitimes.com · Recalls for Central Union oil reaches 17.422 tonnes↗taipeitimes.com · China calls criticism of ethnic law ‘malicious smear’↗taipeitimes.com · Army to hold missile firing drills next week: source↗taipeitimes.com · Minerals in Cook Islands a top priority: US envoy↗taipeitimes.com ·
RAW FEED — NOT YET EXTRACTED INTO CLAIMS · LINKS LEAVE VUCA NEWS
RELATED DYNAMICS