Sudan Civil War
The SAF-RSF war has produced the world's largest displacement and hunger crisis, with confirmed famine determinations across multiple locations. The RSF's capture of el-Fasher has shifted fighting to Kordofan and cemented a de facto partition, while both sides are sustained by gold revenue and external sponsors — UAE backing alleged for the RSF, Egypt aligned with the SAF. Port Sudan remains the government and aid lifeline as the conflict spills into Chad and South Sudan.
Why it matters — This matters because Sudan has fractured into two de facto states—RSF-held Darfur and SAF-held center—producing the world's largest displacement and hunger crisis, with confirmed famine and the war now bleeding into Chad and South Sudan.
Why now — In mid-2026 the RSF's capture of el-Fasher has cemented partition and pushed fighting into Kordofan, while gold money and rival foreign sponsors keep both armies fueled with no ceasefire in sight.
WHAT CHANGED · LAST 72H
- —Port Sudan court sentences Hemedti and 15 others to death in absentia for Darfur genocide.
- —FAO: nearly 19.5 million Sudanese — 41 percent — now acutely food insecure.
- —South Sudan spillover displaces 280,000-plus in 2026; 55 percent face Crisis-level hunger.
KEY CLAIMS ON THE RECORD · 15 TOTAL
| Belgium contributed USD 1 million to FAO via SFERA to support 56,667 pastoral households (283,333 people) in Sudan. | VERIFIED · 0.83 · 0 EVID |
| The BOOST Project aims to produce nearly one million metric tons of cereals and pulses, enough to meet annual cereal needs of almost nine million Sudanese. | VERIFIED · 0.82 · 0 EVID |
| UNICEF reached over 800,000 children with education in May 2026, while over 8 million children remain out of school, worst in Darfur and Kordofan. | VERIFIED · 0.82 · 1 EVID |
| UNICEF screened over one million children under five for acute malnutrition in May, reaching 4.5 million children screened since January 2026. | VERIFIED · 0.82 · 1 EVID |
| Over 24,400 severely acute malnourished children were admitted for lifesaving treatment in May 2026 in Sudan. | VERIFIED · 0.82 · 1 EVID |
| UNICEF reports 33.7 million people in need, 17.3 million children in need, and 9,139,309 internally displaced in Sudan. | VERIFIED · 0.82 · 1 EVID |
| FAO reports nearly 19.5 million people in Sudan — 41 percent of the population — are acutely food insecure. | VERIFIED · 0.82 · 0 EVID |
| Multiple disease outbreaks including cholera, dengue, malaria, measles, and hepatitis E continue spreading in Sudan amid displacement. | VERIFIED · 0.80 · 1 EVID |
OPEN FORECASTS · SCORED CROWD
- Will the IPC confirm famine (IPC Phase 5) conditions in at least one Sudanese location not previously classified as famine, before 2026-12-31?no forecasts yet · closes 2026-12-31
- Will the number of internally displaced persons in Sudan exceed 10 million before 2026-12-31?75% (n=1) · closes 2026-12-31
- Will cumulative fighting-related displacement in South Sudan during 2026 exceed 400,000 people before 2026-12-31?no forecasts yet · closes 2026-12-31
- Will an updated FAO or IPC report place the number of acutely food insecure people in Sudan at more than 21 million before 2026-12-31?no forecasts yet · closes 2026-12-31
DOWNSTREAM EFFECTS · WATCH INDICATORS
- Eastern Chad's fragile stability — Darfur fighting and el-Fasher's fall push waves of refugees across the border into under-resourced eastern Chad, straining food, water and local security in host communities. Watch: UNHCR registered Sudanese refugee count in Chad (currently ~1M+) and monthly new arrivals
- Egypt–UAE proxy rivalry calculus — Cairo's alignment with the SAF and alleged Emirati backing of the RSF put two allied Gulf/Arab powers on opposite sides, hardening a de facto partition each is invested in. Watch: Egyptian military/logistics support statements to Port Sudan and any Arab League censure of UAE arms transfers
- Illicit gold flows through the UAE — Both armies finance the war through Darfur and eastern gold smuggled largely to Emirati refiners, so combat tempo tracks gold liquidity rather than any ceasefire incentive. Watch: UAE gold import volumes vs. Sudan's official gold export figures (the smuggling gap)
- Far-right electoral momentum in the EU — Sudanese displacement feeds Sahel-to-Libya transit routes and Mediterranean crossings, which intensifies European migration politics and then boosts anti-immigration parties' vote share. Watch: Frontex Central Mediterranean crossing numbers and Sudanese nationals among arrivals