Sudan Civil War
The SAF-RSF war has produced the world's largest displacement and hunger crisis, with confirmed famine determinations across multiple locations. The RSF's capture of el-Fasher has shifted fighting to Kordofan and cemented a de facto partition, while both sides are sustained by gold revenue and external sponsors — UAE backing alleged for the RSF, Egypt aligned with the SAF. Port Sudan remains the government and aid lifeline as the conflict spills into Chad and South Sudan.
Why it matters — This matters because Sudan has fractured into two de facto states—RSF-held Darfur and SAF-held center—producing the world's largest displacement and hunger crisis, with confirmed famine and the war now bleeding into Chad and South Sudan.
Why now — In mid-2026 the RSF's capture of el-Fasher has cemented partition and pushed fighting into Kordofan, while gold money and rival foreign sponsors keep both armies fueled with no ceasefire in sight.
WHAT CHANGED · LAST 72H
- —UNICEF screens 1M+ under-fives for malnutrition in May; 24,400 SAM children admitted for treatment.
- —South Sudan fighting displaces 280,000+ in 2026 as conflict spills across borders.
- —IPC projects 7.8M South Sudanese — 55% of population — in Crisis or worse for April–July 2026.
KEY CLAIMS ON THE RECORD · 12 TOTAL
| UNICEF reached over 800,000 children with education in May 2026, while over 8 million children remain out of school, worst in Darfur and Kordofan. | VERIFIED · 0.82 · 1 EVID |
| UNICEF screened over one million children under five for acute malnutrition in May, reaching 4.5 million children screened since January 2026. | VERIFIED · 0.82 · 1 EVID |
| Over 24,400 severely acute malnourished children were admitted for lifesaving treatment in May 2026 in Sudan. | VERIFIED · 0.82 · 1 EVID |
| UNICEF reports 33.7 million people in need, 17.3 million children in need, and 9,139,309 internally displaced in Sudan. | VERIFIED · 0.82 · 1 EVID |
| Multiple disease outbreaks including cholera, dengue, malaria, measles, and hepatitis E continue spreading in Sudan amid displacement. | VERIFIED · 0.80 · 1 EVID |
| IPC April–July 2026 projection places 7.8 million South Sudanese, or 55% of the population, in Crisis (Phase 3) or worse. | ASSESSED · 0.72 · 1 EVID |
| Renewed fighting in South Sudan during 2026 displaced more than 280,000 people, per Save the Children. | ASSESSED · 0.70 · 1 EVID |
| West Darfur Governor Khamis Abbakar was killed in June 2023, hours after accusing the RSF of attacks on civilians. | ASSESSED · 0.70 · 1 EVID |
OPEN FORECASTS · SCORED CROWD
- Will the number of internally displaced persons in Sudan exceed 10 million before 2026-12-31?no forecasts yet · closes 2026-12-31
- Will cumulative fighting-related displacement in South Sudan during 2026 exceed 400,000 people before 2026-12-31?no forecasts yet · closes 2026-12-31
DOWNSTREAM EFFECTS · WATCH INDICATORS
- Chad's eastern border stability — RSF consolidation of Darfur pushes waves of refugees across the border into eastern Chad, overwhelming camps and straining a fragile Deby government reliant on the same UAE patron backing the RSF. Watch: UNHCR registered Sudanese refugee total in Chad crossing 1.2 million
- Sahel jihadist operating space — Refugee overflow and RSF arms flows destabilize Chad, which anchors the Lake Chad basin, then weakens the buffer against JNIM/ISWAP expansion westward across the Sahel. Watch: ACLED violent-event count in Chad's Lac and Ouaddai provinces rising quarter-on-quarter
- Egyptian Nile water and food calculus — SAF collapse or partition threatens Egypt's upstream security arrangements and refugee absorption, straining a Nile-dependent state already squeezed on water allocation and forcing harder GERD-era positioning. Watch: Egyptian cabinet statements on Sudan border security or Nile water quotas; Sudanese refugee numbers in Egypt
- Russian paramilitary Africa footprint — Sudan's gold revenue keeps both armies solvent, sustaining the smuggling networks that finance Russian Africa Corps operations, which then extend Moscow's Sahel and Red Sea reach. Watch: Reported Russian gold-export flows via Sudan or new Africa Corps deployments near Port Sudan