Sudan Civil War
This matters because Sudan has fractured into two de facto states—RSF-held Darfur and SAF-held center—producing the world's largest displacement and hunger crisis, with confirmed famine and the war now bleeding into Chad and South Sudan.
In mid-2026 the RSF's capture of el-Fasher has cemented partition and pushed fighting into Kordofan, while gold money and rival foreign sponsors keep both armies fueled with no ceasefire in sight.
This situation is actively monitored. Its narrative and claims build here as sources are ingested and each claim is verified — evidence first, always.
See a complete dossier: Ebola Outbreak Tracking →Event history for this dynamic is still being curated. The current assessment is built from the claims, sources, and score movement on this page.
Coordinates humanitarian response and reports on the crisis scale
Lead food-aid responder facing access blockage and famine determinations
State backer of the SAF and host of displaced Sudanese
State belligerent holding the center and east, fighting to retake Kordofan and Khartoum's periphery
Paramilitary belligerent controlling Darfur, advancing on Kordofan
Alleged external backer of the RSF; conduit for gold and materiel
VIOLET NODES = THIRD-ORDER (PROPAGATES THROUGH ANOTHER TRACKED SITUATION) · MECHANISMS & WATCH INDICATORS BELOW
BECAUSE RSF consolidation of Darfur pushes refugees, fighters and weapons across porous borders, destabilizing already-fragile neighbors.
WATCH FOR UNHCR refugee counts into Chad crossing new thresholds or cross-border clashes reported in 2026
BECAUSE Alleged UAE backing of the RSF against Egypt-aligned SAF turns Sudan into a contest between outside sponsors, prolonging the war.
WATCH FOR UN Panel of Experts findings or documented arms flows to RSF/SAF in 2026
BECAUSE Both sides fund the war through gold smuggled to the Gulf, sustaining combat and evading sanctions-based pressure.
WATCH FOR Sudan gold-export tracking or new sanctions on RSF/SAF gold networks in 2026
BECAUSE Port Sudan is the sole government and humanitarian lifeline, so any disruption there chokes both aid delivery and regional access.
WATCH FOR Any attack, blockade or capacity drop at Port Sudan reported in 2026
BECAUSE Confirmed famine determinations across multiple sites mean continued fighting and aid-access denial translate directly into mass death.
WATCH FOR New IPC Phase 5 famine classifications or mortality-rate updates in 2026
QUESTIONS ARE SCORED — BRIER + LOG, PUBLIC TRACK RECORD ON /ACCURACY
PRIMARY DATASETS · TRACKED REFERENCE · AUTOMATED SIGNAL EXTRACTION IN A LATER PHASE