62/100
VUCA INDEX
SITUATION · WEST AFRICA · GOVERNANCE · SECURITY
Sahel Security Cascade
VUCA INDEX 62/100RISINGCONFIDENCE 0.61+4 / 14D
WHAT CHANGED · LAST 72H
—July 4: coordinated attacks on Gao, Sévaré, Aguelhok, Anefis, Kenioroba; army claims all repelled.
—FLA launches fresh offensive on Anefis; Tuareg-led force hits town holding Russian paramilitaries.
—Niger's ICC withdrawal instrument received 18 June 2026.
INTENSITY · OBSERVED + FORECAST
BASELINE 50+12 VS BASELINE
90D OBSERVEDBASELINE = TRAILING 90D MEDIANFORECAST · DASHED
VUCA COMPONENTS
Volatility69
Uncertainty61
Complexity61
Ambiguity54
MOMENTUM +4 / 14DHORIZON 90D16 CLAIMS · 24 EVIDENCE ITEMS
RAW SIGNAL · LIVE
INGESTION V0 · UNPROCESSEDWest Africa , Not Worst Africa : Harnessing the Region Extraordinary Wealth for Sustainable Development . Part II : Stronger Together --- Why Regional Cooperation Is West Africa Greatest Competitive Advantage↗modernghana.com · JUL 5 · 16:00ZInstability in Lake Chad, Sahel worsening Nigeria's insecurity - Says Army chief↗vanguardngr.com · JUL 5 · 12:45ZAbducted Oyo pupils: Rescue operation ongoing — Army chief↗punchng.com · JUL 5 · 08:30ZInsurgents stage coordinated attacks on army positions across Mali↗internazionale.it · JUL 5 · 03:00ZIranian FM Araghchi expresses gratitude to over 70 nations for attending Khamenei's funeral↗newyorkstatesman.com · JUL 5 · 01:45ZIranian FM Araghchi expresses gratitude to over 70 nations for attending Khamenei's funeral↗africaleader.com · JUL 5 · 01:45ZIranian FM Araghchi expresses gratitude to over 70 nations for attending Khamenei's funeral↗middleeaststar.com · JUL 5 · 01:15ZMali government reports rebel attacks targeting northern towns↗timesleader.com · JUL 5 · 01:15Z
RAW FEED — NOT YET EXTRACTED INTO CLAIMS · LINKS LEAVE VUCA NEWS
RELATED DYNAMICS