62/100
VUCA INDEX
SITUATION · WEST AFRICA · GOVERNANCE · SECURITY
Sahel Security Cascade
VUCA INDEX 62/100RISINGCONFIDENCE 0.60+4 / 14D
WHAT CHANGED · LAST 72H
—Gao and Sévaré struck again by rebels on July 4, 2026.
—FLA announces fresh offensive on the northern town of Anefis.
—Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso deepen shift from Western to Russian security backing.
INTENSITY · OBSERVED + FORECAST
BASELINE 50+12 VS BASELINE
90D OBSERVEDBASELINE = TRAILING 90D MEDIANFORECAST · DASHED
VUCA COMPONENTS
Volatility68
Uncertainty62
Complexity59
Ambiguity56
MOMENTUM +4 / 14DHORIZON 90D16 CLAIMS · 24 EVIDENCE ITEMS
RAW SIGNAL · LIVE
INGESTION V0 · UNPROCESSEDAfghanistan Among Least Funded Aid Crises, NRC Warns↗khaama.com · JUL 4 · 18:15Zعقب هجمات متمردي الطوارق..الجيش المالي: الوضع تحت السيطرة↗okaz.com.sa · JUL 4 · 15:30ZMali army says situation under control after attacks on several military positions↗prokerala.com · JUL 4 · 15:30ZMali government reports rebel attacks targeting northern towns↗2news.com · JUL 4 · 12:30ZMali’s government reports rebel attacks across north of the country, targeting major cities↗panow.com · JUL 4 · 12:30ZWorld: El Niño is forecast to intensify, increasing likelihood of extreme weather↗reliefweb.int · JUL 3 · 04:33ZWorld: West Africa Seasonal Monitor: The rainy season continues normally in bimodal areas and expands gradually into the Sahel, June 26, 2026↗reliefweb.int · JUL 3 · 03:33ZBurkina Faso: UNHCR Sahel Situation: 2026 Funding Update (as of 30 June 2026)↗reliefweb.int · JUL 2 · 23:43Z
RAW FEED — NOT YET EXTRACTED INTO CLAIMS · LINKS LEAVE VUCA NEWS
RELATED DYNAMICS