62/100
VUCA INDEX
SITUATION · WEST AFRICA · GOVERNANCE · SECURITY
Sahel Security Cascade
VUCA INDEX 62/100RISINGCONFIDENCE 0.60+4 / 14D
WHAT CHANGED · LAST 72H
—Gao and Sévaré struck again by rebels on July 4, 2026.
—FLA announces fresh offensive on the northern town of Anefis.
—Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso deepen shift from Western to Russian security backing.
INTENSITY · OBSERVED + FORECAST
BASELINE 50+12 VS BASELINE
90D OBSERVEDBASELINE = TRAILING 90D MEDIANFORECAST · DASHED
VUCA COMPONENTS
Volatility68
Uncertainty62
Complexity59
Ambiguity56
MOMENTUM +4 / 14DHORIZON 90D16 CLAIMS · 24 EVIDENCE ITEMS
RAW SIGNAL · LIVE
INGESTION V0 · UNPROCESSEDInsurgents stage coordinated attacks on army positions across Mali↗internazionale.it · JUL 5 · 03:00ZIranian FM Araghchi expresses gratitude to over 70 nations for attending Khamenei's funeral↗africaleader.com · JUL 5 · 01:45ZIranian FM Araghchi expresses gratitude to over 70 nations for attending Khamenei's funeral↗newyorkstatesman.com · JUL 5 · 01:45ZIranian FM Araghchi expresses gratitude to over 70 nations for attending Khamenei's funeral↗middleeaststar.com · JUL 5 · 01:15ZMali government reports rebel attacks targeting northern towns↗timesleader.com · JUL 5 · 01:15ZIran Thanks 70+ Nations for Khamenei Funeral↗newkerala.com · JUL 5 · 00:15ZHow ICC go take prosecute war crimes for Sahel now wey Burkina Faso, Niger and Mali don withdraw? – Information Nigeria Pidgin↗informationng.com · JUL 4 · 23:15ZAfghanistan Among Least Funded Aid Crises, NRC Warns↗khaama.com · JUL 4 · 18:15Z
RAW FEED — NOT YET EXTRACTED INTO CLAIMS · LINKS LEAVE VUCA NEWS
RELATED DYNAMICS