62/100
VUCA INDEX
SITUATION · WEST AFRICA · GOVERNANCE · SECURITY
Sahel Security Cascade
VUCA INDEX 62/100RISINGCONFIDENCE 0.60+4 / 14D
WHAT CHANGED · LAST 72H
—Gao and Sévaré struck again by rebels on July 4, 2026.
—FLA announces fresh offensive on the northern town of Anefis.
—Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso deepen shift from Western to Russian security backing.
INTENSITY · OBSERVED + FORECAST
BASELINE 50+12 VS BASELINE
90D OBSERVEDBASELINE = TRAILING 90D MEDIANFORECAST · DASHED
VUCA COMPONENTS
Volatility68
Uncertainty62
Complexity59
Ambiguity56
MOMENTUM +4 / 14DHORIZON 90D16 CLAIMS · 24 EVIDENCE ITEMS
RAW SIGNAL · LIVE
INGESTION V0 · UNPROCESSEDMali government reports rebel attacks targeting northern towns↗timesleader.com · JUL 5 · 01:15ZIranian FM Araghchi expresses gratitude to over 70 nations for attending Khamenei's funeral↗middleeaststar.com · JUL 5 · 01:15ZIran Thanks 70+ Nations for Khamenei Funeral↗newkerala.com · JUL 5 · 00:15ZHow ICC go take prosecute war crimes for Sahel now wey Burkina Faso, Niger and Mali don withdraw? – Information Nigeria Pidgin↗informationng.com · JUL 4 · 23:15ZAfghanistan Among Least Funded Aid Crises, NRC Warns↗khaama.com · JUL 4 · 18:15ZMali army says situation under control after attacks on several military positions↗prokerala.com · JUL 4 · 15:30Zعقب هجمات متمردي الطوارق..الجيش المالي: الوضع تحت السيطرة↗okaz.com.sa · JUL 4 · 15:30ZMali’s government reports rebel attacks across north of the country, targeting major cities↗panow.com · JUL 4 · 12:30Z
RAW FEED — NOT YET EXTRACTED INTO CLAIMS · LINKS LEAVE VUCA NEWS
RELATED DYNAMICS