48/100
VUCA INDEX
SITUATION · EAST ASIA · MILITARY · DIPLOMACY
Korean Peninsula Signaling
VUCA INDEX 48/100EASINGCONFIDENCE 0.71-3 / 14D
WHAT CHANGED · LAST 72H
—Pyongyang's missile-test pause reached a sixth week; the inter-Korean military hotline was reactivated.
INTENSITY · OBSERVED + FORECAST
BASELINE 56-8 VS BASELINE
90D OBSERVEDBASELINE = TRAILING 90D MEDIANFORECAST · DASHED
VUCA COMPONENTS
Volatility53
Uncertainty54
Complexity45
Ambiguity49
MOMENTUM -3 / 14DHORIZON 90D13 CLAIMS · 21 EVIDENCE ITEMS
THEATER · EAST ASIA · INFRASTRUCTURE
LOADING MAP…
BLOOM = CURRENT INTENSITY 48RED = DAMAGED / OFFLINETHERMAL = NASA FIRMS 24HDRAG TO PAN
DOSSIER DEVELOPING
The narrative for this situation is being assembled from its published claims and will appear here shortly. Verified claims are already listed above.
See a complete dossier: Taiwan Strait Pressure →RAW SIGNAL · LIVE
INGESTION V0 · UNPROCESSEDNKorea launches naval destroyer cruise missile↗perthnow.com.au · JUL 5 · 01:45ZNorth Korean leader Kim observes weapons tests from new naval destroyer↗winnipegfreepress.com · JUL 5 · 01:15ZWhat Draws Trump to Kim Jong Un? The Answer Is Personal↗38north.org · JUL 1 · 15:55ZOpening of New Road Link With Russia Unlikely in Near-Term↗38north.org · JUN 30 · 15:09ZVietnam’s Potential Economic Lessons for North Korea↗38north.org · JUN 29 · 20:08ZWhy North Korea Got the Bomb (And Iran Did Not, for Now)↗38north.org · JUN 22 · 16:26ZNorth Korea Rebuilds Anti-American Rhetoric and Education↗38north.org · JUN 18 · 20:19ZOn a Mission From General Affairs Department↗38north.org · JUN 17 · 15:35Z
RAW FEED — NOT YET EXTRACTED INTO CLAIMS · LINKS LEAVE VUCA NEWS
RELATED DYNAMICS