48/100
VUCA INDEX
SITUATION · EAST ASIA · MILITARY · DIPLOMACY
Korean Peninsula Signaling
VUCA INDEX 48/100EASINGCONFIDENCE 0.71-3 / 14D
WHAT CHANGED · LAST 72H
—Pyongyang's missile-test pause reached a sixth week; the inter-Korean military hotline was reactivated.
INTENSITY · OBSERVED + FORECAST
BASELINE 56-8 VS BASELINE
90D OBSERVEDBASELINE = TRAILING 90D MEDIANFORECAST · DASHED
VUCA COMPONENTS
Volatility53
Uncertainty54
Complexity45
Ambiguity49
MOMENTUM -3 / 14DHORIZON 90D13 CLAIMS · 21 EVIDENCE ITEMS
THEATER · EAST ASIA · INFRASTRUCTURE
LOADING MAP…
BLOOM = CURRENT INTENSITY 48RED = DAMAGED / OFFLINETHERMAL = NASA FIRMS 24HDRAG TO PAN
DOSSIER DEVELOPING
This situation is actively monitored. Its narrative and claims build here as sources are ingested and each claim is verified — evidence first, always.
See a complete dossier: Taiwan Strait Pressure →RAW SIGNAL · LIVE
INGESTION V0 · UNPROCESSEDWhat Draws Trump to Kim Jong Un? The Answer Is Personal↗38north.org · JUL 1 · 15:55ZOpening of New Road Link With Russia Unlikely in Near-Term↗38north.org · JUN 30 · 15:09ZVietnam’s Potential Economic Lessons for North Korea↗38north.org · JUN 29 · 20:08ZWhy North Korea Got the Bomb (And Iran Did Not, for Now)↗38north.org · JUN 22 · 16:26ZNorth Korea Rebuilds Anti-American Rhetoric and Education↗38north.org · JUN 18 · 20:19ZOn a Mission From General Affairs Department↗38north.org · JUN 17 · 15:35ZMeet the 2026-2027 Cohort for the 38 North Emerging Scholars Fellowship Program↗38north.org · JUN 16 · 15:06ZXi Jinping’s Visit to Pyongyang: Regional Roundup↗38north.org · JUN 10 · 23:20Z
RAW FEED — NOT YET EXTRACTED INTO CLAIMS · LINKS LEAVE VUCA NEWS
RELATED DYNAMICS