VUCA
CLAIM · ASSESSED ~ · CONFIDENCE 0.65

World Bank fertiliser price index rose more than 12 percent in Q1 2026, reaching its highest level since October 2022.

WHY THIS MATTERS · This matters because most of the world's fertilizer flows through a handful of choke points — Russian and Belarusian potash, Moroccan phosphate, gas-linked nitrogen — so one export curb or gas spike raises fertilizer costs, cuts crop yields, and pushes food prices up fastest in poor import-dependent countries.

Part of the monitored dynamic Fertilizer Supply Security · VUCA INDEX 61/100

EVIDENCE CHAIN · 1
INGESTED ARTICLETIER 2JUL 8
aljazeera.com — The Strait of Hormuz is now at the centre of Iranian and US calculus

"The World Bank’s fertiliser price index has risen more than 12 percent in the first quarter of 2026 and has since climbed to its highest level since October 2022, driven largely by the closure."

PROVENANCE

Extracted by pipeline v0.5 (claude-opus-4-8) from aljazeera.com · approved by christopher@vucanews.com JUL 9.

Extracted JUL 8; approved JUL 9 at 0.65.

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