81/100
VUCA INDEX
SITUATION · EASTERN EUROPE · MILITARY · ENERGY
Russia–Ukraine War
VUCA INDEX 81/100RISINGCONFIDENCE 0.77+7 / 14D
WHAT CHANGED · LAST 72H
—Strikes on transmission substations resumed June 26 after a five-week pause.
—Bridgehead across the Oskil river north of Kupiansk verified by geolocation.
—Ukraine hit St Petersburg oil terminal, Vysotsk port and Kronstadt in overnight July 4 salvo.
INTENSITY · OBSERVED + FORECAST
BASELINE 70+11 VS BASELINE
90D OBSERVEDBASELINE = TRAILING 90D MEDIANFORECAST · DASHED
VUCA COMPONENTS
Volatility85
Uncertainty60
Complexity79
Ambiguity51
MOMENTUM +7 / 14DHORIZON 90D63 CLAIMS · 142 EVIDENCE ITEMS
RAW SIGNAL · LIVE
INGESTION V0 · UNPROCESSEDUkraine strikes Russian oil terminal in 'massive' drone attack as Zelensky continues escalating retaliatory actions targeting Putin's infrastructure | Daily Mail Online↗dailymail.com · JUL 4 · 19:30ZRussia looks to students to make up for mounting losses in Ukraine↗yahoo.com · JUL 4 · 19:30ZRussia repels major Ukrainian long-range attack MOD↗russiaherald.com · JUL 4 · 19:30ZRussia repels major Ukrainian long-range attack - MOD↗russiaherald.com · JUL 4 · 19:30ZElbit plans to hire 2,000 new employees, ending 2026 with 4,000 new hires, CEO Machlis says↗jpost.com · JUL 4 · 18:15ZUkraine launches major drone attack again on Russia↗abcnews.com · JUL 4 · 18:15ZDayslong funeral for slain Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei begins in Tehran↗southcarolinapublicradio.org · JUL 4 · 18:15ZUkrainian drones hit St Petersburg oil terminal in latest long-range attack on Russia↗stcatharinesstandard.ca · JUL 4 · 18:15Z
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RELATED DYNAMICS