58/100
VUCA INDEX
SITUATION · MIDDLE EAST · MARITIME · TRADE
Red Sea Maritime Disruption
VUCA INDEX 58/100EASINGCONFIDENCE 0.80-5 / 14D
WHAT CHANGED · LAST 72H
—Houthi spokesman threatens Saudi airports and land/sea interests over airspace
—Fourth consecutive week without a successful strike on commercial shipping
—Bab el-Mandeb transits recover to 71% of 2024 baseline as two lines resume Suez
INTENSITY · OBSERVED + FORECAST
BASELINE 68-10 VS BASELINE
90D OBSERVEDBASELINE = TRAILING 90D MEDIANFORECAST · DASHED
VUCA COMPONENTS
Volatility64
Uncertainty52
Complexity55
Ambiguity44
MOMENTUM -5 / 14DHORIZON 90D27 CLAIMS · 51 EVIDENCE ITEMS
RAW SIGNAL · LIVE
INGESTION V0 · UNPROCESSEDIran Begins Dayslong Funeral For Khamenei↗theuknews.com · JUL 4 · 15:30ZIran Begins Dayslong Funeral For Khamenei Amid Tight Security↗theuknews.com · JUL 4 · 15:30ZIran Begins Dayslong Funeral For Khamenei↗middleeaststar.com · JUL 4 · 12:30ZWorld: Turkish Red Crescent Monthly Activity Bulletin - June 2026↗reliefweb.int · JUL 3 · 10:27ZImproving Human Capital and Building Livelihoods for Vulnerable families in Yemen↗reliefweb.int · JUL 3 · 07:11ZWorld: Global CCCM Cluster: Solutions from the Start in Site Management (December 2025)↗reliefweb.int · JUL 3 · 02:08ZDR Congo: Local Humanitarian Leadership in Conflict Settings: Insights from civil society actors↗reliefweb.int · JUL 2 · 21:03ZSyrian Arab Republic: Overview of Refugee and Asylum-Seeker Population (As of end of June 2026)↗reliefweb.int · JUL 2 · 10:03Z
RAW FEED — NOT YET EXTRACTED INTO CLAIMS · LINKS LEAVE VUCA NEWS
RELATED DYNAMICS