57/100
VUCA INDEX
SITUATION · MIDDLE EAST · MARITIME · TRADE
Red Sea Maritime Disruption
VUCA INDEX 57/100EASINGCONFIDENCE 0.79-5 / 14D
WHAT CHANGED · LAST 72H
—Houthi spokesman threatens Saudi airports and land-and-sea interests over airspace violations
—Houthi target set widens beyond Israel to explicitly include Saudi Arabia
—Assessed reporting places Houthis inside the Iran war since March 2026
INTENSITY · OBSERVED + FORECAST
BASELINE 67-10 VS BASELINE
90D OBSERVEDBASELINE = TRAILING 90D MEDIANFORECAST · DASHED
VUCA COMPONENTS
Volatility65
Uncertainty50
Complexity54
Ambiguity43
MOMENTUM -5 / 14DHORIZON 90D27 CLAIMS · 51 EVIDENCE ITEMS
ANALYST VIEW · THREATS, COMPETITION & THE ODDS
A dedicated analyst reads this dynamic's data on a schedule and ranks what actually threatens the status quo — then proposes the dated, resolvable questions whose crowd and AI forecasts become the real measure of “how likely.” Assessments are desk-reviewed; the competition board below is straight from the numbers.
HOW LIKELY? · SCORED FORECASTS, NOT ASSERTIONS
The odds on the questions that would settle it — the crowd against the published AI baseline. Add yours on the forecasts page.
Will Houthi forces conduct a claimed attack against Saudi Arabian territory before 2026-10-05?
9%SEED9%@AI
Will a commercial vessel be struck by a Houthi attack in the Red Sea or Bab el-Mandeb before 2026-10-05?
35%SEED35%@AI
RAW SIGNAL · LIVE
INGESTION V0 · UNPROCESSEDAnother Aircraft Carrier Is Set To Depart From The Middle East↗forbes.com · JUL 5 · 18:30ZIndia secures fertilizer supply as 15 vessels cross Strait of Hormuz | Today News↗livemint.com · JUL 5 · 18:30ZCargo ship attacked off Yemen coast in Red Sea , British military says↗katc.com · JUL 5 · 16:00ZIran seeks to tighten control over strait of Hormuz alongside Khamenei funeral↗theguardian.com · JUL 5 · 16:00ZAttack by Yemen Houthis kills 16 government troops : medics↗arabnews.com · JUL 5 · 16:00ZAt least 15 Yemeni government troops killed in Hodeidah fighting - Grenada Chronicle – Daily Grenada And Caribbean News↗grenadachronicle.com · JUL 5 · 16:00ZThe Houthis in the Rabbit Hole↗english.aawsat.com · JUL 5 · 16:00ZCargo Ship Reports Attack Off Yemen↗theuknews.com · JUL 5 · 15:45Z
RAW FEED — NOT YET EXTRACTED INTO CLAIMS · LINKS LEAVE VUCA NEWS
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