Red Sea Maritime Disruption

VUCA INDEX 58/100EASINGCONFIDENCE 0.79-5 / 14D

WHAT CHANGED · LAST 72H

—5 July: cargo vessel attacked 30nm SW of Hodeidah; no claim of responsibility.

—1-2 July: MV Golden Arsenal piracy attempt off Djibouti; INS Trikand responds, 21 crew safe.

—Charles de Gaulle heads home; French MCM and escort vessels stay behind.

INTENSITY · OBSERVED + FORECAST

BASELINE 68-10 VS BASELINE

90D OBSERVEDBASELINE = TRAILING 90D MEDIANFORECAST · DASHED

VUCA COMPONENTS

Volatility64

Uncertainty50

Complexity58

Ambiguity43

MOMENTUM -5 / 14DHORIZON 90D27 CLAIMS · 51 EVIDENCE ITEMS

ANALYST VIEW · THREATS, COMPETITION & THE ODDS

A dedicated analyst reads this dynamic's data on a schedule and ranks what actually threatens the status quo — then proposes the dated, resolvable questions whose crowd and AI forecasts become the real measure of “how likely.” Assessments are desk-reviewed; the competition board below is straight from the numbers.

HOW LIKELY? · SCORED FORECASTS, NOT ASSERTIONS

The odds on the questions that would settle it — the crowd against the published AI baseline. Add yours on the forecasts page.

Will Houthi forces conduct a claimed attack against Saudi Arabian territory before 2026-10-05?

9%SEED9%@AI

Will a commercial vessel be struck by a Houthi attack in the Red Sea or Bab el-Mandeb before 2026-10-05?

35%SEED35%@AI

RAW SIGNAL · LIVE

INGESTION V0 · UNPROCESSED

RAW FEED — NOT YET EXTRACTED INTO CLAIMS · LINKS LEAVE VUCA NEWS

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