57/100
VUCA INDEX
SITUATION · MIDDLE EAST · MARITIME · TRADE
Red Sea Maritime Disruption
VUCA INDEX 57/100EASINGCONFIDENCE 0.79-5 / 14D
WHAT CHANGED · LAST 72H
—5 July: cargo vessel attacked 30nm SW of Hodeidah; no claim of responsibility.
—1-2 July: MV Golden Arsenal piracy attempt off Djibouti; INS Trikand responds, 21 crew safe.
—Charles de Gaulle heads home; French MCM and escort vessels stay behind.
INTENSITY · OBSERVED + FORECAST
BASELINE 67-10 VS BASELINE
90D OBSERVEDBASELINE = TRAILING 90D MEDIANFORECAST · DASHED
VUCA COMPONENTS
Volatility65
Uncertainty50
Complexity54
Ambiguity43
MOMENTUM -5 / 14DHORIZON 90D27 CLAIMS · 51 EVIDENCE ITEMS
ANALYST VIEW · THREATS, COMPETITION & THE ODDS
A dedicated analyst reads this dynamic's data on a schedule and ranks what actually threatens the status quo — then proposes the dated, resolvable questions whose crowd and AI forecasts become the real measure of “how likely.” Assessments are desk-reviewed; the competition board below is straight from the numbers.
HOW LIKELY? · SCORED FORECASTS, NOT ASSERTIONS
The odds on the questions that would settle it — the crowd against the published AI baseline. Add yours on the forecasts page.
Will Houthi forces conduct a claimed attack against Saudi Arabian territory before 2026-10-05?
9%SEED9%@AI
Will a commercial vessel be struck by a Houthi attack in the Red Sea or Bab el-Mandeb before 2026-10-05?
35%SEED35%@AI
RAW SIGNAL · LIVE
INGESTION V0 · UNPROCESSEDWFP Yemen Food Security Update, June 2026↗reliefweb.int · JUL 6 · 02:35ZCargo Ship Reports Attack Near Hodeidah, Yemen↗maritime-executive.com · JUL 5 · 23:30ZAnother Aircraft Carrier Is Set To Depart From The Middle East↗forbes.com · JUL 5 · 18:30ZIndia secures fertilizer supply as 15 vessels cross Strait of Hormuz | Today News↗livemint.com · JUL 5 · 18:30ZCargo ship attacked off Yemen coast in Red Sea , British military says↗katc.com · JUL 5 · 16:00ZIran seeks to tighten control over strait of Hormuz alongside Khamenei funeral↗theguardian.com · JUL 5 · 16:00ZThe Houthis in the Rabbit Hole↗english.aawsat.com · JUL 5 · 16:00ZAttack by Yemen Houthis kills 16 government troops : medics↗arabnews.com · JUL 5 · 16:00Z
RAW FEED — NOT YET EXTRACTED INTO CLAIMS · LINKS LEAVE VUCA NEWS
RELATED DYNAMICS