73/100
VUCA INDEX
SITUATION · MIDDLE EAST · NUCLEAR · DIPLOMACY
Iran Nuclear Program
VUCA INDEX 73/100STEADYCONFIDENCE 0.53+1 / 14D
WHAT CHANGED · LAST 72H
—US-Iran memorandum of understanding reportedly signed 17 June 2026.
—Memorandum assessed at moderate confidence; terms undisclosed.
—Reported easing of regional tensions attributed to the agreement.
INTENSITY · OBSERVED + FORECAST
BASELINE 72+1 VS BASELINE
90D OBSERVEDBASELINE = TRAILING 90D MEDIANFORECAST · DASHED
VUCA COMPONENTS
Volatility70
Uncertainty78
Complexity64
Ambiguity72
MOMENTUM +1 / 14DHORIZON 90D22 CLAIMS · 39 EVIDENCE ITEMS
RAW SIGNAL · LIVE
INGESTION V0 · UNPROCESSEDMcEntee to discuss stability in region during Gulf trip↗rte.ie · JUL 5 · 00:00ZSaw missiles for first time : For Paanch Saab , baptism by fire at sea near Hormuz | India News↗indianexpress.com · JUL 5 · 00:00ZThe Resistance That Refused to Die — and Why Tehran Cannot Sleep - NCRI↗ncr-iran.org · JUL 4 · 23:15ZIranian mourners vow revenge on US, Israel during funeral for supreme leader↗fox56.com · JUL 4 · 22:15ZIranian mourners vow revenge on US, Israel during funeral for supreme leader↗krcgtv.com · JUL 4 · 21:15ZIranian mourners vow revenge on US, Israel during funeral for supreme leader↗wsbt.com · JUL 4 · 21:15ZIranian mourners vow revenge on US, Israel during funeral for supreme leader↗bakersfieldnow.com · JUL 4 · 21:15ZIranian mourners vow revenge on US, Israel during funeral for supreme leader↗wlos.com · JUL 4 · 19:30Z
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RELATED DYNAMICS