87/100
VUCA INDEX
SITUATION · MIDDLE EAST · MILITARY · HUMANITARIAN · DIPLOMACY · REGIONAL-SECURITY
Gaza War
VUCA INDEX 87/100STEADYCONFIDENCE 0.51±0 / 14D
WHAT CHANGED · LAST 72H
—Israel, Lebanon sign US-backed framework to end Hezbollah conflict
—Hezbollah rejects deal citing no withdrawal timetable
—Israeli strikes hit Majdal Zoun, al-Mansouri despite framework
INTENSITY · OBSERVED + FORECAST
BASELINE 86+1 VS BASELINE
90D OBSERVEDBASELINE = TRAILING 90D MEDIANFORECAST · DASHED
VUCA COMPONENTS
Volatility88
Uncertainty79
Complexity85
Ambiguity80
MOMENTUM ±0 / 14DHORIZON 90D0 CLAIMS · 0 EVIDENCE ITEMS
STRUCTURED DATA · PRIMARY SOURCES
OCHA oPt Humanitarian Situation Updates↗Casualty, displacement, and aid-access figures for Gaza and the West BankUN OCHA occupied Palestinian Territory · weekly/near-dailyACLED Middle East Conflict Data↗Geocoded event and fatality data for Israel-Palestine and regional frontsACLED · weekly
PRIMARY DATASETS · TRACKED REFERENCE · AUTOMATED SIGNAL EXTRACTION IN A LATER PHASE
RAW SIGNAL · LIVE
INGESTION V0 · UNPROCESSEDVenezuelan leader marks Independence Day with message of ‘no social unrest’↗aljazeera.com · JUL 5 · 22:48ZIsraeli strikes kill two in Gaza , teen shot in West Bank , infant dies at checkpoint↗sana.sy · JUL 5 · 22:45ZAs in Gaza , the Israel - Lebanon peace agreement is designed to fail↗sott.net · JUL 5 · 22:45ZHow a son rescued his father from the rubble of Venezuela’s earthquakes↗aljazeera.com · JUL 5 · 22:41ZHaaland scores twice as Norway stun Brazil 2-1 in World Cup 2026 last 16↗aljazeera.com · JUL 5 · 22:26ZPalestinian baby dies in West Bank after Israel blocks urgent medical care↗aljazeera.com · JUL 5 · 22:03ZWeekend - Cargo ship attacked in Red Sea off Yemen as Houthi ceasefire holds shakily↗investinglive.com · JUL 5 · 22:00ZDemocratic rising star Mallory McMorrow unexpectedly drops out of key Michigan Senate race↗independent.co.uk · JUL 5 · 22:00Z
RAW FEED — NOT YET EXTRACTED INTO CLAIMS · LINKS LEAVE VUCA NEWS
RELATED DYNAMICS