CLAIM · ASSESSED ~ · CONFIDENCE 0.62

Russian Shahed-type drone output has reached roughly 190 airframes per week

Part of the monitored dynamic Russia–Ukraine War · VUCA INDEX 81/100

EVIDENCE CHAIN · 2

SERIAL ANALYSISTIER 3MAY – JUN

Recovered-airframe component audit

Serial-number gaps across recovered Shahed-type airframes imply a production run consistent with ~180–200 units/week.

OFFICIAL BRIEFINGTIER 2JUN 1 – JUL 2

Ukrainian Air Force launch-count series

Nightly launch totals exceeded 100 airframes on four of the last seven nights, a cadence requiring elevated output or stock drawdown.

ENTITIES

PROVENANCE

Assessed claim · production estimate inferred from serial-number analysis and launch cadence · methodology note attached.

Estimate raised from ~160/week May 30 on the basis of recovered-airframe serial gaps; wide error band retained.