CLAIM · VERIFIED ✓ · CONFIDENCE 0.89
Median daily ADIZ incursions rose from 11 to 26 sorties
WHY THIS MATTERS · This matters because a doubling of PLA sorties and two carrier groups inside the first island chain sharply raises the odds of an accidental clash, and any real blockade would choke off the advanced chips that power the world's phones, cars, and weapons.
Part of the monitored dynamic Taiwan Strait Pressure · VUCA INDEX 71/100
EVIDENCE CHAIN · 1
OFFICIAL DATATIER 1JUN 16 – JUL 1
Taiwan MND daily activity reports
Sortie counts computed as 7-day rolling medians from published bulletins.
ENTITIES
PROVENANCE
Computed by aggregation job v0.4 · methodology published · no editorial override.
Value updated daily; series unbroken since Jun 16.
MORE FROM THIS DYNAMIC
- PLA air and naval activity around Taiwan has intensified over the past two weeks
- Three major insurers repriced strait-transit war-risk premiums upward
- Beijing has not signaled an intent to blockade
- Two container lines began routing east of Taiwan
- Taiwan's opposition-dominated legislature in May approved two-thirds of a proposed $40 billion extra defense package requested by Lai Ching-te.
STRUCTURED DISSENT