US Dollar Security
The narrative for this situation is being assembled from its published claims and will appear here shortly. Verified claims are already listed above.
See a complete dossier: Taiwan Strait Pressure →The dollar's power as an instrument of statecraft rests on trust in the currency itself. These are the structural numbers underneath that trust — money created, value retained, and how much currency now sits on top of the real economy — drawn straight from Federal Reserve data and shown without the jargon.
A dollar saved in 1971 — when the US cut the last tie to gold — buys about 12 cents' worth of goods today. The rest quietly evaporated.
Purchasing power of one dollar, tracked against consumer prices (FRED: CPIAUCSL). Down and to the right is the erosion.
Of every dollar in the M2 money supply today, roughly 33% was created since the start of 2020 — the stock went from $15.4T to $23.1T.
M2 money supply (FRED: M2SL). Shaded: the money created from 2020 onward. Uses M2, not the M1 figure behind the viral '40%' stat, which was inflated by a 2020 accounting change.
There are now about 70 cents of money supply for every dollar of goods and services the economy produces in a year — up from roughly 56 cents in 1970.
M2 divided by GDP (FRED: M2SL ÷ GDP). More money stacked on the same output is the pressure the dollar has to absorb.
Each dollar now changes hands about 1.4 times a year, down from 2.2× at its peak. Slower money is why all that printing didn't detonate prices — but it means the system is absorbing, not using, the extra dollars.
M2 velocity (FRED: M2V). The context chart: it's why this is a slow-burning risk, not an overnight one.
Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), St. Louis Fed — public series, refreshed weekly. Next layer: reserve-currency share (IMF COFER), central-bank gold buying (World Gold Council), and foreign Treasury holdings (US Treasury TIC) — the de-dollarization side of the ledger.
The dollar's reach is what makes sanctions bite — the US can lock an adversary out of the financial system because almost everyone needs dollars. But every time that power is used, the rest of the world takes note and hedges. These are the numbers on both sides of that bargain: the dollar's slipping grip on reserves, and what central banks are buying instead.
The dollar's share of the world's official reserves has fallen from 71% in 1999 to 57% — still dominant, but the slide is steady and it accelerated after 2022.
US dollar share of allocated official FX reserves (IMF COFER, year-end). The 2022 marker is the Russia reserve freeze.
Central banks bought 863 tonnes of gold in 2025, against a ~455t/year pace before 2022 — a hard asset no one else can freeze.
Central-bank net gold purchases (World Gold Council, tonnes/year). Highlighted bars: the post-2022 surge above 1,000t. Figures periodically revised by WGC.
Foreigners hold a record $9.3 trillion of US federal debt — the diversification is real, but the world hasn't found anywhere near enough of an alternative to actually leave.
Federal debt held by foreign & international investors (FRED: FDHBFIN). Rising in dollars even as the reserve share falls — the dollar's stickiness, quantified.
The causal spine: each use of the dollar as leverage teaches the world to hold less of it.
- 2014US & EU sanction Russia over CrimeaFirst large-scale use of financial exclusion against a major economy — and the signal that reserves could become a target.
- 2018US exits the Iran deal, threatens SWIFTSecondary sanctions show any dollar user can be cut off, pushing rivals to build non-dollar payment rails.
- 2022~$300B of Russia's reserves frozenThe largest reserve freeze in history, plus SWIFT expulsion — every reserve manager now prices the risk that dollars can be seized.
- 2023BRICS pushes local-currency tradeExpanded bloc accelerates non-dollar settlement; central-bank gold buying holds above 1,000 tonnes.
- 2024G7 taps frozen Russian assets for UkraineUsing the windfall from immobilized reserves deepens the caution — and the case for holding gold over Treasuries.
Sources: IMF Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves (COFER); World Gold Council, Gold Demand Trends; US Treasury / Federal Reserve via FRED. Reserve-share and gold series are curated from their publishers and refreshed as new releases land; foreign-holdings data updates automatically.
A dedicated analyst reads this dynamic's data on a schedule and ranks what actually threatens the status quo — then proposes the dated, resolvable questions whose crowd and AI forecasts become the real measure of “how likely.” Assessments are desk-reviewed; the competition board below is straight from the numbers.
IMF COFER, allocated reserves. The dollar still dwarfs every rival — the story is the slope, not the standings. Gold, a neutral reserve no one can freeze, sits outside this currency field and is charted above.
The dollar holds ~56.8% of allocated reserves (COFER Q4 2025) and foreign Treasury holdings sit near a record $9.27T — a picture of gradual erosion, not rupture. Central banks bought ~863 tonnes of gold in 2025 and sanctions-driven diversification continues, but no rival has scaled: the euro is stalled near 20%, the renminbi is stuck under 2%.
Central-bank gold buying (~863 tonnes in 2025) is the most credible active diversification channel, letting reserve managers cut dollar exposure without adopting any rival currency.
A widening deficit and periodic default theatrics are the largest self-inflicted risk to dollar confidence, though record foreign Treasury holdings ($9.27T) show demand remains intact for now.
Weaponization since 2022 is nudging China, Russia and Gulf states toward local-currency trade and gold, but the flows remain marginal against dollar network effects.
Collectively the 'other' bucket (6.13%) plus CAD (2.49%) and AUD (2.03%) absorb reserve share leaking from the dollar, but each is too small and illiquid to anchor a system.
At 20.25% the euro is the only large-scale alternative, but the absence of a unified safe asset and fiscal union has kept its share flat for years.
CNY reserve share is just 1.95% and capital controls cap its appeal, though CIPS/mBridge infrastructure is the most plausible long-horizon challenge to dollar settlement dominance.
The odds on the questions that would settle it — the crowd against the published AI baseline. Add yours on the forecasts page.
PRIMARY DATASETS · TRACKED REFERENCE · AUTOMATED SIGNAL EXTRACTION IN A LATER PHASE
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